Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.338 — Corey Seager batting against Luis Perdomo
0.328 — Jose Altuve batting against Kendall Graveman
0.316 — Adrian Gonzalez batting against Luis Perdomo
0.314 — J.T. Realmuto batting against John Lamb
0.313 — Martin Prado batting against John Lamb
0.312 — Paulo Orlando batting against Wade Miley
0.312 — Ian Desmond batting against Ricky Nolasco
0.309 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Nick Martinez
0.308 — Daniel Murphy batting against Logan Verrett
0.308 — Yunel Escobar batting against Yovani Gallardo

Two rookies make the top of the list, one a very good hitter, one a pitcher who gives up lots of hits. Perdomo is getting better, however, as he no longer dominates the list when he starts.

The NN top ten looks like this:

0.328, 0.768 — Jose Altuve batting against Kendall Graveman.
0.305, 0.745 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Matt Moore.
0.309, 0.742 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Nick Martinez.
0.304, 0.741 — Adrian Beltre batting against Ricky Nolasco.
0.313, 0.737 — Martin Prado batting against John Lamb.
0.308, 0.737 — Yunel Escobar batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.293, 0.736 — Buster Posey batting against Robbie Ray.
0.338, 0.732 — Corey Seager batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.314, 0.732 — J.T. Realmuto batting against John Lamb.
0.301, 0.731 — Christian Yelich batting against John Lamb.
0.308, 0.731 — Daniel Murphy batting against Logan Verrett.

It strikes me that the NN does a better job of understanding the sample size issue, knocking Seager versus Perdomo down a bit.

The NN with park considerations alters the list like this:

0.328, 0.726 — Jose Altuve batting against Kendall Graveman.
0.305, 0.711 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Matt Moore.
0.304, 0.706 — Adrian Beltre batting against Ricky Nolasco.
0.309, 0.706 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Nick Martinez.
0.308, 0.701 — Yunel Escobar batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.293, 0.699 — Buster Posey batting against Robbie Ray.
0.289, 0.698 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Jerad Eickhoff.
0.313, 0.698 — Martin Prado batting against John Lamb.
0.287, 0.696 — Mookie Betts batting against Matt Moore.
0.276, 0.692 — Odubel Herrera batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.314, 0.692 — J.T. Realmuto batting against John Lamb.
0.263, 0.692 — Francisco Lindor batting against CC Sabathia.

The park eliminates the Seager versus Perdomo match. Altuve, Nunez, and Escobar appear to be the consenus picks. As usual, your best pick is going to fail to get a hit about 25% of the time. Good luck!

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/29wAIa1