Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.327 — Daniel Murphy batting against Zachary Godley
0.326 — Tyler Naquin batting against Tyler Duffey
0.325 — Francisco Lindor batting against Tyler Duffey
0.317 — Corey Seager batting against Tyler Anderson
0.312 — Lonnie Chisenhall batting against Tyler Duffey
0.310 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Hisashi Iwakuma
0.309 — Yunel Escobar batting against Kendall Graveman
0.306 — Aledmys Diaz batting against Cody Reed
0.305 — Jason Kipnis batting against Tyler Duffey
0.301 — Danny Valencia batting against Jered Weaver
0.301 — Jose Ramirez batting against Tyler Duffey

Tyler Duffey of the Twins gives the Indians hitters a good chance to get a hit tonight. There have been a ton of runs in that series so far as the Twins won 10-6 Tuesday night. Murphy collected five hits in the first two games in Arizona.

The NN produces this list:

0.327, 0.759 — Daniel Murphy batting against Zachary Godley.
0.310, 0.738 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Hisashi Iwakuma.
0.325, 0.736 — Francisco Lindor batting against Tyler Duffey.
0.317, 0.736 — Corey Seager batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.309, 0.735 — Yunel Escobar batting against Kendall Graveman.
0.238, 0.726 — Jose Altuve batting against Marco Estrada.
0.326, 0.723 — Tyler Naquin batting against Tyler Duffey.
0.299, 0.722 — Mookie Betts batting against Hisashi Iwakuma.
0.286, 0.720 — Starling Marte batting against Rob Whalen.
0.282, 0.719 — Paulo Orlando batting against Jake Odorizzi.

Whalen is making his major league debut, so the NN indicates that Marte against a league average pitcher has a pretty good chance of getting a hit. Whalen has not allowed many hits in his minor league career.

The NN with park factored in produces this list:

0.327, 0.762 — Daniel Murphy batting against Zachary Godley.
0.317, 0.744 — Corey Seager batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.325, 0.742 — Francisco Lindor batting against Tyler Duffey.
0.310, 0.740 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Hisashi Iwakuma.
0.309, 0.738 — Yunel Escobar batting against Kendall Graveman.
0.326, 0.732 — Tyler Naquin batting against Tyler Duffey.
0.299, 0.725 — Mookie Betts batting against Hisashi Iwakuma.
0.290, 0.724 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Brock Stewart.
0.286, 0.723 — Starling Marte batting against Rob Whalen.
0.238, 0.722 — Jose Altuve batting against Marco Estrada.

Marco Estrada appears to be one of the few pitchers who can knock Altuve down a peg. Corey Seager gets a big boost from Coors Field, but Daniel Murphy is the consensus first pick, with Lindor or Seager second. As always, your best picks will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time. Good luck!

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2aSGBwG