Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.
First, the Log5 Method picks:
0.351 — Justin Turner batting against Patrick Corbin
0.324 — J.D. Martinez batting against Matt Cain
0.319 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Homer Bailey
0.317 — Corey Seager batting against Patrick Corbin
0.315 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Homer Bailey
0.313 — Yunel Escobar batting against Kyle Gibson
0.309 — Eric Hosmer batting against Felix Hernandez
0.305 — Wilmer Flores batting against Joe Ross
0.304 — Dixon Machado batting against Matt Cain
0.304 — Whit Merrifield batting against Felix Hernandez
Merrifield is just about reaching the point where his three-year hit average is no longer being regresses toward the mean. He is a high BA (.286), low OBP (.324) player, exactly the type that should be good at a hit streak. His teammate, Eric Hosmer, owns a ten-game hit streak, currently second best in the majors.
The leader of the list, Justin Turner, is 9 for 24 career against Corbin with two doubles and a home run.
Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:
0.351, 0.760 — Justin Turner batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.319, 0.755 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Homer Bailey.
0.315, 0.747 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Homer Bailey.
0.297, 0.747 — Daniel Murphy batting against Seth Lugo.
0.302, 0.741 — Jean Segura batting against Daniel Duffy.
0.324, 0.733 — J.D. Martinez batting against Matt Cain.
0.279, 0.733 — Jose Altuve batting against Sean Newcomb.
0.313, 0.733 — Yunel Escobar batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.317, 0.731 — Corey Seager batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.300, 0.726 — Nolan Arenado batting against Homer Bailey.
Turner is the unanimous choice. The NN likes hitters against Bailey more than hitter against King Felix.
I want to remind readers that the probabilities generated by the NN assume the batter starts the game. Yesterday provided a good example of why you need to avoid players who don’t start. Daniel Murphy was the top pick. Dusty Baker gave him the day off. Late in the game, however, Murphy pinch hit and made an out. Murphy’s probability of getting a hit in any single plate appearance is low, but over four or five PA in a game it’s high. Keep your eye on the starting lineups.
As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.
Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:
Miguel Cabrera might be due.
Good luck!
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2uFRiKS
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