Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.
First, the Log5 Method picks:
0.328 — Jose Ramirez batting against Jordan Zimmermann
0.313 — Odubel Herrera batting against Clayton Richard
0.310 — Justin Turner batting against Jason Hammel
0.309 — Michael Brantley batting against Jordan Zimmermann
0.306 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Matt Moore
0.304 — Daniel Murphy batting against R.A. Dickey
0.302 — Dee Gordon batting against Matt Moore
0.301 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Matt Moore
0.301 — Aaron Altherr batting against Clayton Richard
0.300 — Eddie Rosario batting against Kevin Gausman
Ramirez continued his hot hitting in the 11-2 Cleveland blow out of San Diego on Thursday. The Indians third baseman went 3 for 5 with a home run and is now batting .330 in a very tight AL batting race. Zimmermann allows a .294 BA this season with lots of power.
Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:
0.304, 0.755 — Daniel Murphy batting against R.A. Dickey.
0.328, 0.752 — Jose Ramirez batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.296, 0.740 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Derek Holland.
0.279, 0.740 — Jean Segura batting against Sean Manaea.
0.295, 0.736 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Derek Holland.
0.310, 0.734 — Justin Turner batting against Jason Hammel.
0.275, 0.731 — Jose Altuve batting against Aaron Sanchez.
0.309, 0.731 — Michael Brantley batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.302, 0.726 — Dee Gordon batting against Matt Moore.
0.301, 0.723 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Matt Moore.
It’s very close between Murphy and Ramirez for the top spot. Zimmermann is a much easier pitcher to hit than Dickey. Zimmermann’s one and three year hit averages are .267 and .263 respectively, while Dickey comes in at .233 and .229. Murphy beats Ramirez .309 to .302 this year, but wins big in the weighted three year hit average, .302 to .279. That is the most important parameter to the NN. Ramirez also wins the park, .235 to .234. Ramirez is the consensus choice. Both are very small career sample sizes, but Ramirez is 2 for 5 against Zimmermann, Murphy 4 for 6 against Dickey.
As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.
Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:
Good luck!
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2tZ7RoS
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