The division previews conclude with the AL West. I try to get a handle on the wins for the core of the team. That includes the starting position players, the starting rotation, and the closer. I use a combination of the STATS, Inc. depth charts and the CBSSports depth charts, along with news stories to determine those groups. For wins, I use FanGraphs WAR from 2015, making conservative guesses for players not in the majors in 2015. As a rule of thumb, add 50 to the core WAR to get to a season win level. You can see the spreadsheet with the data here.
Texas Rangers
- Position Player WAR: 20.2
- Pitcher Total: 10.6/li>
- Core Total: 30.8/li>
The Rangers come into 2016 a solid team, and a chance to get better. They come into this season with a legitimate ace in Cole Hamels, and may add a second one when Yu Darvish returns from Tommy John surgery in late May or early June. Delino Deshields posted an excellent season at age 22, and he should get better. After missing nearly two years due to injury, the still young Jurickson Profar will play in AAA to build his skills back. If they come back quickly, he might help the Rangers this year.
On the other hand, Adrian Beltre is a year older, and at seasonal age 37, he could go down hill quickly. All in all, however, the Rangers should be able to compete for the division and the wild card as they are configured going into the regular season.
Houston Astros
- Position Player WAR: 19.8
- Pitcher Total: 15.8
- Core Total: 35.6
The Astros enter 2016 with the strongest pitching core WAR in the division. This is without Lance McCullers included in the core, as he will start the season on the disabled list with a sore shoulder.
The position players remain young, most in their prime or younger. Even the old ones are just hitting age 30. That means as a group they are more likely to improve than decline. The sky’s the limit for the very young Carlos Correa.
Looking at the division, I like the Astros trade for Ken Giles. The closers are very weak in the AL West, and Giles gives the Astros an advantage in that spot.
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
- Position Player WAR: 22.9
- Pitcher Total: 6.3
- Core Total: 29.2
Mike Trout accounts for about 1/3 of the team’s core WAR. I’d like to say the team got a little younger with the addition of Andrelton Simmons, but they also added Yunel Escobar.
The pitching staff looks a bit bleak behind Garrett Richards. Jered Weaver is still in the rotation despite probelms, and C.J. Wilson doesn’t even make the top five. I suspect the offense will need to carry the weight this year. Luckily, because of Trout, they do go into the season with the best position player core WAR in the division
Seattle Mariners
- Position Player WAR: 21.2
- Pitcher Total: 10.6
- Core Total: 31.8
The Mariners, for the second year in a row, look like a team that should compete in the AL West. They made some positive changes to the team, adding Adam Lind and Nori Aoki. Much of the upside should come from two stars who suffered from poor performances in 2015, Robinson Cano and Felix Hernandez. The two could combine to add seven more WAR to this core total, which would move them to the top of the division.
Of course, Nelson Cruz is getting a bit older. Being a full time designated hitter should help keep him healthy, but he’s more likely to decline than improve at this point. Not much needs to go right to propel the Mariners into the playoffs.
Oakland Athletics
- Position Player WAR: 14.5
- Pitcher Total: 7.4
- Core Total: 21.9
The Athletics are not a bad team, they just don’t have enough talent to compete in this tough division. It’s a team of complementary players. Most of them would be good surrounding a couple of superstars. When are top to stars are three WAR players, it’s tough to find enough other talent to make the playoffs. They’ll career years out of two or three people to win.
Probability of winning the division
This could be a four-way race, but I suspect the Angels pitching will keep them out of it. It’s the Astros division to lose.
- Houston Astros: 35%
- Texas Rangers: 30%
- Seattle Mariners: 25%
- Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: 9%
- Oakland Athletics:1%
Play ball!
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/222AqaT
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