Harper’s K

With Bryce Harper striking out for the first time in 2016 Monday night, August Fagerstrom looks at what it takes to K the young star. It also should be pointed out that a lower strike out rate for Harper might lead to other honors.

Harper is one of eight players this season with no more than one strikeout and at least 20 plate appearances. Note that many of them own high batting averages, especially Dee Gordon and Buster Posey. A low strikeout rate means that a player will hit close to his BABIP. If a player wants to hit above his BABIP, a low strikeout rate and a high home run rate does the trick. Miguel Cabrera won the triple crown and back-to-back MVPs because he lowered his strikeout rate while increasing his power. A rule of thumb is if a batter hits a home run for every two strikeouts, he’ll hit his BABIP. In 2012, Cabrera hit 44 HR and struck out 98 times. His BABIP was .331, his BA .330. In 2013, he once again hit 44 HR, but struck out just 94 times. His BABIP was .356, and he hit .348.

Note that Harper lost the batting title last season to Dee Gordon, who struck out 40 fewer times and hit for a higher BABIP. If Bryce can bring his strikeouts down, he could win a batting title. With a home run title already under his belt, the first NL triple crown since 1937 could be in his sights.

Why stop there, however. What if Harper played the entire season striking out five times per 100 at bats? What if he ended the season with between 25 and 30 K? His BABIP for the last two seasons is around .360. If he gets 525 AB, 50 home runs, and just 30 K, he hits .400. Are those numbers crazy? His last two seasons produced BABIPs of .352 and .369. He accumulated 521 AB in 654 BA in 2015. He hit 44 home runs at seasonal age 22 in 2015, and he should still be improving. The only crazy number in that .400 line is the strikeouts. Yet I wouldn’t bet against him to do it. I have no doubt Harper knows about Ted Williams 1941 season, when Williams hit 37 home runs and struck out just 27 times. Harper is capable of more home runs, so he doesn’t need to go quite that low in Ks. It would certainly make baseball fun again if we wound up in September with Harper nearing 60 homers, a triple crown, and a .400 BA.

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/1S8Cxr1