Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN).

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.342 — Yoenis Cespedes batting against Wily Peralta
0.334 — Juan Lagares batting against Wily Peralta
0.328 — Neil Walker batting against Wily Peralta
0.327 — James Loney batting against Wily Peralta
0.323 — Wilmer Flores batting against Wily Peralta
0.320 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against Wily Peralta
0.309 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Kyle Gibson
0.307 — Matt Reynolds batting against Wily Peralta
0.300 — Daniel Murphy batting against Aaron Nola
0.297 — Michael Conforto batting against Wily Peralta

Today is the day to take anyone on the Mets.

The NN provides a more varied list:

0.283, 0.742 — Jose Altuve batting against Chris Archer.
0.309, 0.739 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.327, 0.736 — James Loney batting against Wily Peralta.
0.278, 0.736 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Jose Quintana.
0.300, 0.734 — Daniel Murphy batting against Aaron Nola.
0.342, 0.734 — Yoenis Cespedes batting against Wily Peralta.
0.261, 0.731 — Josh Harrison batting against Carlos Martinez.
0.293, 0.731 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Eduardo Rodriguez.
0.281, 0.730 — Robinson Cano batting against Colby Lewis.
0.296, 0.728 — Francisco Lindor batting against Matthew Shoemaker.

If you refuse to pick someone on the Mets, Bogaerts and ex-Met Murphy appear to be the best bets. There are some very good pitchers on the mound today, which is why the Log5 list is so skewed toward Peralta, who turns all batters into Daniel Murphy.

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/1UmDMW1