Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.350 — Ryan Braun batting against Luis Perdomo
0.336 — Daniel Murphy batting against Robbie Ray
0.326 — Hernan Perez batting against Luis Perdomo
0.323 — Starling Marte batting against Mike Foltynewicz
0.320 — Scooter Gennett batting against Luis Perdomo
0.317 — Jonathan Villar batting against Luis Perdomo
0.308 — Wilson Ramos batting against Robbie Ray
0.305 — Yunel Escobar batting against Sean Manaea
0.303 — Melky Cabrera batting against Anibal Sanchez
0.299 — Manuel Pina batting against Luis Perdomo
0.298 — Jose Altuve batting against R.A. Dickey

The Log5 method continues to like batters against Luis Perdomo, with good reason. His opposition batting stats have improved every month, however, so this may be an overestimate. On the other hand, while improved, he’s still not good.

The NN provides this list:

0.336, 0.764 — Daniel Murphy batting against Robbie Ray.
0.298, 0.753 — Jose Altuve batting against R.A. Dickey.
0.350, 0.745 — Ryan Braun batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.323, 0.741 — Starling Marte batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.305, 0.732 — Yunel Escobar batting against Sean Manaea.
0.294, 0.731 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Wade LeBlanc.
0.303, 0.720 — Melky Cabrera batting against Anibal Sanchez.
0.308, 0.718 — Wilson Ramos batting against Robbie Ray.
0.271, 0.715 — Paulo Orlando batting against Matt Andriese.
0.271, 0.714 — Corey Seager batting against Jonathan Gray.

The two league batting leaders move to the top, although Braun still ranks high.

The NN with park factored in produces this list:

0.336, 0.769 — Daniel Murphy batting against Robbie Ray.
0.298, 0.751 — Jose Altuve batting against R.A. Dickey.
0.350, 0.751 — Ryan Braun batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.323, 0.747 — Starling Marte batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.305, 0.735 — Yunel Escobar batting against Sean Manaea.
0.294, 0.733 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Wade LeBlanc.
0.308, 0.727 — Wilson Ramos batting against Robbie Ray.
0.303, 0.725 — Melky Cabrera batting against Anibal Sanchez.
0.271, 0.724 — Corey Seager batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.326, 0.721 — Hernan Perez batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.320, 0.721 — Scooter Gennett batting against Luis Perdomo.

Murphy and Braun appear to be the consensus picks. As always, your top picks will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time. Good luck!

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2aeJHNV