Kyle Gibson is pulled from the game after six no-hit innings. It’s up to the Twins bullpen to keep it going as they lead the Orioles 6-0. Gibson did walk 5 batters.
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Saturday, March 31, 2018
The Age of the Mets
This James Wagner article about the age of the Mets starts with a great headline:
If the Mets Succeed, They’re Experienced. If They Fail, They’re Old.
So far they have succeeded. The Mets are 2-0 after a 6-2 win over the Cardinals Saturday afternoon. The Mets hope their starting pitchers stay healthy and keep pace with the Nationals. Through two games, The two Mets starters combined for 11 2/3 innings, one walk and 17 strikeouts. The two Nationals starters lasted 12 1/3 innings with two walks and 17 strikeouts. That part of the plan is working fine. Both teams are 2-0.
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DeShields Down
Delino DeShields, Jr. broke his hamate bone:
This is a predicament for the Rangers, given that they really have no viable replacement center fielder. Rule 5 pick Carlos Tocci is starting in center field today, and is at least nominally the backup right now, but while his defense gets great reviews, his bat isn’t considered to be major league caliber. Drew Robinson could end up getting the bulk of the starts in center while DeShields is out, but he’s not particularly experienced in center field.
DeShields sets the table well, and that will be missed, also.
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Nothing to do With Baseball
In case you haven’t seen it, this is the greatest Twitter thread ever. I could not stop laughing.
Co-worker got his lunch stolen and they’ve agreed to let him watch the security camera tape. This is the most excited I’ve ever been at any job ever. Ever.
— Zak Toscani (@zaktoscani) March 29, 2018
You need to read the whole thing. I’m guessing there was a secret office romance that went bad.
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Games of the Day
Stephen Strasburg takes the hill for Washington as they continue their series with Reds. Luis Castillo starts his sophomore year for the Reds. Strasburg finished the 2017 season on a very high note. He allowed zero earned runs in two starts for the Nationals against the Cubs, struck out 22 batters in 14 innings while walking just three, allowing just six hits. The two unearned runs hung a loss on him, however, otherwise the Nationals might have advance to the NLCS for the first time.
That second start that extended the playoffs to game five was not without controversy. Reports were that Strasburg declined to pitch the game due to breathing problems, then Strasburg threw seven shutout innings. Expectations are high for him in 2018.
Castillo pitched his rookie year, posting a 3.12 ERA in 89 1/3 innings, his strikeout and walk rates both good. His 3-7 record was due to a lack of run support.
Yu Darvish makes his Cubs debut in Miami against Dillon Peters. Darvish pitched well for the Dodgers up until the World Series, where the Astros scored nine runs against him in 3 1/3 innings over two starts. An Astros play said they knew what Darvish was about to throw. Having seen Darvish from playing in the same division, I suspect the Astros were holding that card in their pocket until they needed to play it. Peters posted a high ERA in his 2017 rookie season as he allowed way too many base runners. Overall, his OBP allowed was .381, but with on one on, it rose to .406. He constantly had to deal with runners on base, not just concentrate on the batter. He walked very few batters in the minor leagues, so I suspect that aspect of his game should improve.
Enjoy!
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Close Friday
Friday saw six games decided by one run, three games decided by two runs, and a three-run game decided in extra innings. Two of the games were 1-0 affairs. First, David Price pitched seven shutout innings at his old home field as Boston beat Tampa Bay. Price walked none and struck out five, and his return to form is a huge positive for the Red Sox.
For the second day in a row, the Giants beat the Dodgers 1-0 on a Joe Panik solo home run. Johnny Cueto and Alex Wood combined for 15 shutout innings, but Dodgers closer Kenley Jansen took the loss as Panik took a 0-1 pitch out of the park. That’s what the Dodgers get for using Jansen in a non-save situation!
It took 17 innings, but the Marlins beat the Cubs 2-1 for Miami’s first win of the season. Kris Bryant and Ben Zobrist collected three hits each, but the rest of the Cubs collected just two. Three singles with two out in the bottom of the 17th win the game, Miguel Rojas getting the walk-off hit. The Miami bullpen pitched 11 1/3 shutout innings.
The Brewers and Padres wound up close due to the Brewers scoring five runs in the top of the ninth inning, the last three on a Ryan Braun home run to beat the Padres 8-6. Braun drove in five in the game, two with outs.
There’s been a lot of edge of your seat baseball the first two days of the season.
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Beat the Streak Picks
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.
First, the Log5 Method picks:
0.286 — Jose Altuve batting against Matt Moore
0.286 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Luis Perdomo
0.275 — Trey Mancini batting against Kyle Gibson
0.268 — David Peralta batting against German Marquez
0.267 — Adam Jones batting against Kyle Gibson
0.266 — Jonathan Schoop batting against Kyle Gibson
0.265 — Yoenis Cespedes batting against Michael Wacha
0.264 — Christian Yelich batting against Luis Perdomo
0.264 — Chris Owings batting against German Marquez
0.263 — Manny Machado batting against Kyle Gibson
0.263 — Orlando Arcia batting against Luis Perdomo
0.263 — Ryan Braun batting against Luis Perdomo
0.263 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Zack Greinke
The value represents the expected hit average against the pitcher. Hit average is hits/PA, the probability of getting a hit when a batter steps to the plate. This early in the season, it is almost entirely based on the previous two years of batting. So we get Jose Alutve, who is very good, and Lorenzo Cain, batting against a pitcher who is relatively bad.
Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:
0.286, 0.715 — Jose Altuve batting against Matt Moore.
0.286, 0.693 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.263, 0.687 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Zack Greinke.
0.275, 0.683 — Trey Mancini batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.259, 0.678 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Zack Greinke.
0.260, 0.676 — Elvis Andrus batting against Lance McCullers.
0.261, 0.674 — Ender Inciarte batting against Vincent Velasquez.
0.261, 0.674 — Nolan Arenado batting against Zack Greinke.
0.254, 0.673 — Jose Ramirez batting against James Paxton.
0.253, 0.673 — Avisail Garcia batting against Ian Kennedy.
The first value in this list is the same as above, but the second value is the probability of getting a hit in the game. If you will, it takes into account that the batter won’t face the starting pitcher the whole game. The probabilities are low right now due to the league average for position players starting the season down at .204. With enough data, that is usually around .230. In general, the best players on any given day show a probability of a hit around .750.
Today, the two systems agree that Jose Altuve and Lorenzo Cain are the best picks. Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!
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Pledge Drive Update
It’s the last day of the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. The drive is $350 away from the goal of $1500. Won’t you help put the drive over the top? If everyone who visited the site today donated $10, the drive would be over not only for this year, but for next year as well. Your donation supports independent writing, and the Day by Day Database. Won’t you help?
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Friday, March 30, 2018
Judge and Drury
Aaron Judge went hitless in his first three at bats, but the Blue Jays failed to nullify Brandon Drury. He’s 2 for 2 with a walk, double and two RBI. Didi Gregorius is also hitting with conviction, as he tripled, doubled, walked, and scored two runs. The Yankees lead the Blue Jays 4-1 in the top of the sixth inning.
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Silver Lining
The Nationals beat the Reds 2-0, but Cincinnati can walk away with something positive. Homer Bailey pitched well enough to win against a very good offense. He allowed just one run in six innings, giving up four hits and three walks. He only struck out three, but the Nats were only four for 19 putting the ball in play. If Bryce Harper had not broken up a double play, Bailey gets through six without allowing a run. Bailey may be back after three injury filled seasons.
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Polanco Power
The only home run of the game between the Pirates and the Tigers comes in the top of the 13th inning, when Gregory Polanco hit one with two on and two out in the 13th inning. That held up as the Pirates beat the Tigers 13-10. For two teams that are supposed to have poor offenses, they sure put the runs today. In the 13 innings there were a total of 31 hits, 12 for extra bases, 13 walks, and a stolen base.
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Maximum Max
Max Scherzer struck out nine Reds batter through the first four innings. He allowed three hits, but no walks and no runs. The Nationals lead the Reds 1-0, thanks to a clean Bryce Harper slide into second base breaking up a double play in the first inning.
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International Relief
The current relief pitcher in the Pirates game at the Tigers are Dovydas Neverauskas, the first Lithuanian born MLB player, and Warwick Saupold, from Australia. Neverauskas worked a perfect inning in the sixth, and Saupold worked a perfect seventh.
The Pirates lead 4-2 at the stretch. The Tigers twice loaded the bases with no one out and failed to score.
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Games of the Day
Four teams make their 2018 debuts on Friday after rain postponed their scheduled opening day. The Pirates take on the Tigers in the interleague match-up, Ivan Nova battling Jordan Zimmermann. Nova posted a great walk rate since joining the Pirates, 1.4 batters per nine innings. He needs that, as his low strikeout rate leads to a high number of hits. The Nationals appear to have let Zimmermann go at the right time. He owned a 3.32 ERA in his year in Washington, a 5.60 ERA since joining the Tigers.
Max Scherzer takes on Homer Bailey as the Nationals open at the Reds. Since joining the Nationals in 2015, Scherzer sits atop the major league strikeout leader board, a hair in front of Chris Sale. Note that the top three in the list also walk very few batters. Bailey is coming off is first winter in years without surgery or rehabilitation. He will play 2018 as a 32-year-old, so it would be unwise to expect him to return to peak performance. He only walked three in 18 spring innings, but he did allow 26 hits and seven home runs.
Finally, the Dodgers and Giants contine their series with Johnny Cueto taking on Alex Wood. Cueto’s 2017 ERA came in at 4.52, the first time since 2009 that he was over 4.00 for a season. Wood reduced his ERA 1.00 run from 2016, thanks to a much lower walk rate.
Enjoy!
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Late Opens
The Indians and Mariners opened the season with a pitching duel, as Corey Kluber and Felix Hernandez were stingy with runs. Kluber gave up a two-run home to Nelson Cruz in the first inning. Hernandez held the Indians scoreless through 5 1/3 innings, while the bullpen gave up just one run the rest of the way as the Mariners win 2-1. Kluber went the distance for the eight-inning complete game, throwing just 91 pitches. Even with the low pitch count, he managed to strike out eight batters, walking just one. A good outing by Hernandez against a good lineup is a very good sign for the Mariners.
In Arizona, the Rockies jumped out to a 1-0 lead in the first inning on a DJ LeMahieu home run, but the Diamondbacks roared back in the bottom of the first with three runs, and that was all they would need as Arizona goes on to an 8-2 victory. Patrick Corbin struck out eight in 5 2/3 innings, while overall the DBacks pitchers K’d 12 and walked two.
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Pledge Drive Update
The Baseball Musings Pledge Drive raised $1150 after twenty nine days. Won’t you join the readers who donated? Another 35 readers donating $10 each will help reach the goal of $1500. That supports independent writing, and the Day by Day Database. Will you be one of them?
If you enjoy the series on lineup analysis, or use the Musings Marcels for your fantasy draft, won’t you hit the PayPal button? If you run a fantasy league, the USA Today reports replace the data you used to get in the Sports Weekly. Is that worth a few dollars?
Donations can be made via PayPal or Square Cash. Unfortunately, other donations providers have gone out of business or charge too much money in fees. If you refuse to use one of the above providers but still wish to donate, please contact me and I’ll provide an address for a check. My email is pinto@baseballmusings.com.
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Friday Update
It’s a good Friday, as the Day by Day Database now contains 2018 data!
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Thursday, March 29, 2018
Infield Way In
In the bottom of the 12th inning between the Angels and Athletics, Boog Powell triples just off the glove of Justin Upton with one out. With the score tied at five, Mike Scioscia brings Upton into the infield to try to cut down the run at home. Marcus Semien battles, then hits a fly ball to straight away center, where no outfielder is standing, and the Athletics win 6-5. The Orioles tried that defense earlier in the day and got the double play grounder.
I did not see it, but the Astros used four outfielders earlier in the day. Managers keep getting creative.
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Good Day
It’s been a good day of baseball so far. Ian Happ hit the first pitch of the season out of the park, and the Cubs went on to an 8-4 win over the Marlins. The Mets offense showed the right mix of selectivity and aggressiveness, and Noah Syndergaard looked healthy as New York beat the Cardinals 9-4.
There were exciting games, too. The Orioles blew a 2-0 lead in the ninth, but Adam Jones beat the Twins with a walk-off home run in the 11th inning, as the Orioles won 3-2. The Rays overcame a 4-0 deficit in the eighth inning to beat the Red Sox 6-4. The White Sox were down 4-0 after facing four batters, but hit six home runs, three by Matt Davidson, as they beat the Royals 14-7. The Phillies led the Braves 5-0 in the sixth, but allowed the game to be tied in the eighth, then Nick Markakis hit a three-run homer to win it in the bottom of the ninth as the Braves take the game 8-5.
Milwaukee and San Diego are in the 12th inning after the Padres tied the game in the bottom of the ninth, and the Angels and Athletics are in the 11th tied at five.
Finally, Giancarlo Stanton hit a double and two home runs as the Yankees beat the Blue Jays 6-1, and Houston started their title defense with an easy 4-1 win over the Rangers. George Springer led that game with a home run.
Update: The Brewers beat the Padres 2-1 in twelve innings.
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Triple Span Bridge
Denard Span makes the Red Sox bullpen pay for four walks in the bottom of the eighth inning, as his triple clears the bases and he scores on a single. That wipes out a 4-0 Red Sox lead as the Rays take a 6-4 lead in the inning. Boston wastes a great outing by Chris Sale. The Rays are still batting in the eighth.
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Bloop Breaks Brach
Orioles closer Brad Brach gives up a 2-0 lead in the ninth, as he allows an infield single, two walks and with two outs, a bloop single to center off the bat of Twins pinch-hitter Robbie Grossman. It was a painful inning to watch for Orioles fans as Brach threw 34 pitches, 16 for balls. He’s out of the game in favor of Mychal Givens.
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White Sox Comeback
The White Sox hit three home runs in the top of the fourth inning to take a 5-4 lead over the Royals. The first four Royals all scored in the first inning. Jose Abreu, Matt Davidson, and Tim Anderson all went deep off Danny Duffy to drive in four of the five runs.
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Duel of the Day
Jake Odorizzi and Dylan Bundy are keeping their opponents off the board as they pitch for the Twins and Orioles respectively. Both have six shutout innings under their belts. Odorizzi allowed two hits and two walks while striking out seven. Bundy allowed four hits and one walk while striking out five. Manny Machado, with a double, has the only extra base hit in the game.
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First Hit Before His First Pitch
Shohei Ohtani singles in his first MLB at bat. He looks a bit like Ichiro Suzuki swinging, although Ohtani pulled that pitch for a single. He will start Sunday on the mound. The Angels lead the Athletics 2-0 in the second.
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Shields Down
James Shields gives up three singles, then a three-run homer to Lucas Duda as the Royals take an early 4-0 lead on the White Sox. That’s not what Chicago wanted from their opening day starter.
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Welcome to the Yankees
Giancarlo Stanton goes the opposite way in his first at bat and hits a no doubt home run. Both the Toronto center and right fielders had their heads down way before the ball landed.
Bret Gardner had reached on an error, and the Yankees lead 2-0 in the top of the first inning.
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One in the Books
The Cubs beat the Marlins 8-4 to complete the first game of the 2018 season. Ian Happ, Anthony Rizzo, and Kyle Schwarber homered for the Cubs. Jon Lester pitched poorly, leaving after 3 1/3 innings, but the Cubs bullpen pitched great. They allowed just one hit and three walks in 5 2/3 innings.
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No Nauts for the Astros
George Springer leads off the Astros season with a home run to the opposite field. They lead the Rangers 1-0.
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Rosy Day for Rosario
The Mets batted the pitcher eighth and Amed Rosario ninth. It pays off as Rosario singles twice, driving in two runs and scoring once. His two-run single in the bottom of the fifth drives in two and extends the Mets lead over the Cardinals to 6-3.
Update: Rosario scores on a Yoenis Cespedes single. The ninth hitter setting up the number two hitter is the whole point of batting the weakest hitter eighth.
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Bringing the Hammer
Noah Syndergaard just completed his fifth inning of pitching for the Mets. He struck out ten Cardinals so far without issuing a walk. Jose Martinez and Yadier Molina caused him some trouble, however, as the Mets and Cardinals are tied at three. They have three of the five hits against him, and all three RBI. Syndergaard looks healthy after missing most of last season.
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It’s Harder To Sell Within Our Own Companies!
Tibor Shanto posed an interesting situation in a LinkedIn discussion:
Got an interesting question or scenario for people who work with sales managers, presented by an experienced sales manager and her new company. She was invited to join the company because of her track record in the industry. They wanted her to establish a similar team and process to the one she had implemented at her previous company and told her she had Carte Blanche. It turns out there was a silent asterisk: “Do whatever you want, just don’t change anything other than the results. What’s her best move four months on the job?
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I was surprised at the tone of the discussion. Most of the comments. Most of them were more on the side of, “F**k ’em, they gave her carte blanche, she should do what she wants to do…..” (This is my phrasing, most people aren’t as crude as I.) Others talked about the incompetence of top management, and other similar comments. The recommendations ended up being very strong and very confrontive–after all, they appeared to have reneged on their commitment and we need to confront them with that.
To me, the situation looks a lot like a typical sales situation. Often we encounter customers who seem to be clueless, who don’t recognize they may be doing things wrong, that there are better ways to achieve their goals, they are missing opportunities. They are often very resistant to change, for any number of good and bad reasons.
No one, even the leading “provactive sellers,” would recommend the following approach to these customers, “You stupid, clueless customers!!! Don’t you realize how backwards you are, don’t you realize your competitors are passing you by, don’t you realize if you don’t change you will become roadkill on the business highway?!!!???”
We know customers don’t like confrontive or obnoxious behavior. We realize, they may just not know, they may be too busy in managing the day to day, they may just be prisoners of their own experience.
They may have made poor decisions, executed poorly. Certainly, where they are and the problems they have are the result of these, and if there were blame, the blame is solely on them.
But we know calling them out on their ignorance, lack of foresight, poor execution, and mistakes is not likely to get them to listen to us and consider changing.
We invest time in teaching, educating, getting them to recognize a better way of doing things. We get them to realize there may be a better way, but they still resist–fearful of the change and risk. We know we have to get them to recognize the pain of doing nothing is greater than the pain of change.
We all know, that to be successful, we have to engage the customer in thinking differently, commit to change and see themselves at the center of that change.
So we come back to our own organizations. Are we any different? A sales person trying to sell us and our management something, wouldn’t call us fools or clueless shits. Instead they would do what they know to be successful in engaging customers and getting them to change.
But when it happens to us, in our own organizations, why do we react and execute differently. Why do we whine, complain, argue, threaten, fight, speak poorly of managers or peers.
What would happen if we looked at the changes we want to drive in our own organizations as another sales opportunity? We could qualify the need to change, we could incite the need to change through creating a new vision, we could educate, teach, do all the things we would do with a customer.
We would recognize that just as our customers struggle with change, our own leaders and people struggle. We have to acknowledge that, making the pain of doing nothing greater than the pain of change.
It seems we would be much more effective in driving change in our own organizations if we started looking at our leaders, managers, peers, and people as customers–leveraging much of what we do in great selling in our work with them.
Sure there will be some we lose, just like customers, but it seems the current ways we do things don’t have “high win rates,” so why not try?
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Worth the Wait
Greg Holland receives a $14 million, one-year contract from the injury depleted Cardinals.
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Marlins Come to Life
The Marlins score three runs in the bottom of the third inning to tie the Cubs at four. Starlin Castro reaches base for the second time in the game, and Brian Anderson gets his second hit and second RBI. The Marlins have settled down a bit and are giving the Cubs a game!
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Counting Visits
Yadier Molina makes his first visit to the mound in the bottom of the first of the Cardinals at the Mets. Citi Field installed a mound visits count down scoreboard.
Just after the visit, a ground ball to first baseman Jose Martinez results in a throwing error error, and Brandon Nimmo scores from second. At the end of one inning, the Mets are up 1-0 on an unearned run with no hits.
Update: Molina sends a ball to visit the foul poll, and his two-run homer gives the Cardinals the lead in the second inning. Noah Syndergaard did not allow a home run in 2017.
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Paying the Minors
Maury Brown offers a very good review of the controversy and economics of minor league pay.
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Off with a Bang
Ian Happ hits the first pitch of the season over the fence for a home run. There is a roar from the crowd as Marlins Park is full of Cubs fans. The Cubs start the season with a 1.000/1.000/4.000 slash line.
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Lining Up
A couple of things struck me as I look through starting lineups today. First, Joey Gallo is batting second for the Rangers. Gallo is a huge three-true outcomes hitter, so he’s only hit into three double plays in his career. I like power hitters second, but I usually think of a more complete hitter, like Josh Donaldson.
The Orioles lead-off with Chris Davis, with Manny Machado batting second. The LAT did have a couple of top 30 lineups with Davis and Machado 1-2. Very cool.
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Teammates
Doug Glanville pens a beautifully written piece that is billed as on team chemistry, but really is about how people put their differences aside to work with each other. A very fitting essay for opening day, and for our times in general.
Thanks go to great friend’s wife, who is a doctor on a medical school faculty. Many years ago, she was at a reception for new faculty members, and the dean was in turn introducing them over dinner. One was described as a sabermetrician. The dean asked if anyone knew what that meant. My friend’s wife raised her hand and answered, “Sadly, yes.”
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Staub Passes
It’s a sad opening day as Rusty Staub dies:
The New York Mets confirmed Staub’s death in a tweet Thursday morning.
The team said in a statement he died after an illness in a hospital in West Palm Beach, Fla., hours before the start of the baseball season. A team spokesman said the Mets learned of the death from friends of Staub who were with him at the time.
MLB commissioner Rob Manfred called Staub “a superb ambassador” for the sport.
“Across his accomplished 23-year major-league career, Rusty Staub earned the respect of fans in Houston, Montreal, New York, Detroit and beyond,” Manfred said in a statement. “Known for his power and patience at the plate, Rusty became an all-star for three different clubs and a fan favorite. He played a memorable role in the early franchise histories of the Astros and the Expos, and he starred for the Mets in the 1973 World Series.”
My thought go out to his family and friends.
His .362 career OBP was his most outstanding statistic. He fell one double short of 500 and eight home runs short of 300. His best stretch was in his early prime, from 1969 to 1971. He accumulated 17.4 bWAR in that time, with a .296/.404/.501 slash line.
In his later years, he became a type that has since disappeared, the designated pinch hitter. Now, there is no room on the bench for that kind of specialist.
Bruce Stark did a set of caricatures of Mets and Yankees players in 1973 for the Daily News. I looked up Staub’s, and it reminded me that he had a famous hobby. He was a cook who opened two restaurants.
Good bye to “Le Grand Orange”, and thanks for the memories.
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Games of the Day
The first great match-up of opening day takes place in Queens as Carlos Martinez leads the Cardinals against the Mets and Noah Syndergaard. Martinez broke the 200 inning barrier for the first time in 2017, upping his strikeout rate compared to 2016. He nearly doubled his home runs allowed, however, raising his ERA from 3.04 to 3.64. Syndergaard only pitched 30 1/3 innings in 2017, but they were solid. He was one of only two pitchers to go at least 30 innings without allowing a home run.
Justin Verlander gets the opening day nod for the Astros. Photo credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
Texas keeps opening day in state as the Astros visit the Rangers with Justin Verlander battling Cole Hamels. Verlander put the Astros over the top in 2017. In his five regular season starts for them he posted 1.06 ERA in 34 innings, all four runs allowed coming on four solo homers. In the post-season, he went 4-1 with a 2.21 ERA, striking out 38 in 36 2/3 innings. In 2017, Hamels missed 200 innings for the first time since 2009. That was also the last time his ERA was over 4.00. As he heads into his age 34 season, he has yet to experience a big velocity decrease. Maybe that will let him bounce back.
Chrises face off in Tampa Bay as Chris Sale and the Red Sox face Chris Archer. Sale posted a career year in 2017, winning 17 games, pitching 214 1/3 innings, striking out 308 batters, and posting a 2.90 ERA. He did allow 24 home runs, but 15 were solo shots. His 12.93 K per 9 IP was the third highest of the low mound/division era (1969 on), minimum 200 IP. He trails only Randy Johnson‘s 2001 season and Pedro Martinez‘s 1999 season. Archer struck out 11.15 per nine innings in 2017, that ranks 23rd on the list. In fact, four of the top 23 seasons came in 2017. Archer’s high K rate did not translate into a low ERA, however. It’s not clear why. He pitched decently well with runners in scoring position and men on base.
Finally, Corey Kluber and the Indians take on the Mariners and Felix Hernandez. Kluber led the American League with a 2.25 ERA in 2017, 0.65 runs better than runner up Sale. Over the last four seasons, Kluber owns the best ERA in the American League and the third best in baseball (minimum 600 innings). Hernandez owns a 3.20 career ERA, but the last three seasons came in at 3.79. This is his age 32 season, so we will see if he can stay healthy and make the adjustments to his decreased velocity to continue to thrive in the game.
Enjoy!
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The Harper
Chelsea Janes paints a picture of a very complicated Bryce Harper as he starts what might be his final season with the Nationals:
Meanwhile, a man will sit in the middle of it all, balancing the need to perform with the reality of the biggest decision he has ever gotten to make. The swirl of attention that has always followed him will only swirl faster, and he won’t be able to escape it.
Bryce Harper is financially secure for life. He is married with a healthy family. He gets all the perks of fame, showered in gifts and free meals from those who endorse him and those who hope to endorse him. But for all the bravado some see in him still, Harper is also human. This season, and all that comes with it, will test him.
“I think the thing that surprises you is that while he embraces the spotlight he gets, it may not be what he wants. He just wants to play baseball,” catcher Matt Wieters said. “.?.?. That’s the big surprise. From the outside, he looks like a guy who wants all the attention and wants everything. He deals with it because he has to, because he has that kind of talent.”
Harper enters his prime this season. The next five years likely decide his Hall of Fame status. He is surrounded by great players, which should give him plenty of opportunities to wow us with runs, RBI, and even a ton of walks. Can he hit 200 homers, score and drive in 600 runs in the next five seasons? That would be impressive.
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Happy Opening Day
It’s once again time for baseball, as the Houston Astros try to become the first team since the 1992-1993 Toronto Blue Jays to win back-to-back titles, and 29 other teams attempt to chase them down. I hope you saved your personal days so you can sit back and watch a full day of games. It all starts at 12:30 PM EDT with the Cubs and Marlins, and ends on the west coast with two 7 PM PDT games as Cleveland visits Seattle and Colorado tests the Arizona humidor.
All 30 teams were supposed to play today, but the Nationals and Reds will play tomorrow due to bad weather.
For a quick review, here are my division previews for the new season.
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Wednesday, March 28, 2018
2018 AL West Preview
The division previews finish with the AL West. I try to get a handle on the wins for the core of the team. That includes the starting position players, the starting rotation, and the closer. I use a combination of depth charts, along with news stories to determine those groups. For wins, I use FanGraphs WAR from 2017, making conservative guesses for players not in the majors in 2017. As a rule of thumb, add 50 to the core WAR to get to a season win level. You can see the spreadsheet with the data here.
Houston Astros
- Position Player WAR: 32.9
- Pitcher Total: 17.9
- Core Total: 50.8
The Astros are another super team. Their two highest WAR players in 2017 were Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa, their middle infielders. Their up the middle core WAR stands at 18.8, the highest in the majors. Dallas Keuchel, at 2.5 WAR, posted the lowest number in the rotation in 2017. The team is strong top to bottom.
There is not a lot of room for improvement, however. When all the players on a team combine for career years, there usually is some kind of regression. Maybe age catches up with Justin Verlander again. Maybe some of the young guns on offense take a step back. We saw this with the Cubs after they won the 2016 World Series.
So the 50.8 core WAR is a ceiling. They can fall pretty far, even give up 10 WAR, and still win the division. A very good front office built an excellent team.
Mike Trout remains the best hitter in baseball. Photo Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
- Position Player WAR: 26.3
- Pitcher Total: 5.9
- Core Total: 32.2
The Angels look stronger this season after bringing in Zack Cozart and Ian Kinsler. Those two combined for 7.4 WAR in 2017, and give some more oomph to the lineup around Mike Trout. One move that the Angels could make is the benching of Albert Pujols. He produced a negative two WAR in 2017. If they could find a two WAR DH, that would be four more in the win column for Anaheim.
Maybe the Angels thought Shohei Ohtani would be the answer. He hit like a pitcher in spring training, going 4 for 32. He did not pitch well, although he didn’t appear to get many innings in recorded spring training games. I penciled him in as a one WAR pitcher, but the Angels are hoping for more than that.
That is the key to the Angels season. The rotation produced just 4.3 WAR in 2017. They will need to at least double that for LAnaheim to compete for the division or a wild card. It may just be a matter of staying healthy. That would provide a great deal of upside to the team.
Seattle Mariners
- Position Player WAR: 22.8
- Pitcher Total: 9.7
- Core Total: 32.5
The Mariners position players boast a number of 3+ WAR members. Nelson Cruz, Mike Zunino, Kyle Seager, Dee Gordon, and Robinson Cano combined for 17.4 WAR in 2017. Cruz and Cano are gettig up in age, so there might be a fall-off there. Still, this is a solid offense/defense. I really hope they don’t let Ichrio Suzuki drag them down.
What the Mariners need is for Felix Hernandez to return to form. A four WAR season from him would give the Mariners a great chance at wild card berth, and possibly a division win. There is upside in the rotation.
Texas Rangers
- Position Player WAR: 14.4
- Pitcher Total: 9.5
- Core Total: 23.9
I should be writing about all the upside in the Rangers lineup. Rougned Odor, Joey Gallo, Delino DeShields, and Nomar Mazara are all at an age in which they should be improving. Odor posted a -2 WAR in 2017. Mazara played his second full season, showing no improvement. Gallo is a three-true outcomes hitter at a very young age. They are useful, but not great. Deshields looks like he settled into a table setter, now he needs to build on that.
It’s that lack of progress that has me down on Texas. If those four could jump two WAR each, with a comeback by Cole Hamels, the Rangers might be in the wild card hunt. It’s also possible that either those four youngsters didn’t have star talent, or the Rangers didn’t develop it properly.
Oakland Athletics
- Position Player WAR: 16
- Pitcher Total: 5.7
- Core Total: 21.7
At 21.7, Oakland owns the lowest core WAR in the division. They are however not at the bottom of either the position player nor the pitcher ranks. That’s little solace. The thing to look for with Oakland is a bounce back year from Stephen Piscotty, and better handling of the pitching staff thanks to the arrival of Johnathan Lucroy.
The rotation is a very young staff, and none of them is a master of all three-true outcomes. They strike out two few or walk too many, or allow two many home runs. More experience should help, a better catcher should help. The A’s doing well depends on this staff maturing into a solid unit. That may take another year, however. For 2018, it looks like another last place finish.
Summary
The Astros look like the easy winners of the division, but the Mariners and Angels have enough pitching upside to turn this into a three-way race. The latter two should at least battle for the wild card. If there were to be a surprise in the division, it would come from the Oakland starting rotation being much better than they performed in 2017.
Probability of winning the division
- Houston Astros 55%
- Seattle Mariners 18%
- Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim 17%
- Texas Rangers 6%
- Oakland Athletics 4%
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2018 AL Central Preview
The division previews continue with the AL Central. I try to get a handle on the wins for the core of the team. That includes the starting position players, the starting rotation, and the closer. I use a combination of depth charts, along with news stories to determine those groups. For wins, I use FanGraphs WAR from 2017, making conservative guesses for players not in the majors in 2017. As a rule of thumb, add 50 to the core WAR to get to a season win level. You can see the spreadsheet with the data here.
Corey Kluber leads a strong Indians rotation. Photo credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Cleveland Indians
- Position Player WAR: 23.2
- Pitcher Total: 21.9
- Core Total: 45.1
The Indians are one of the most balanced great teams seen so far. Their position player core WAR comes in at 23.2, their pitching WAR is close at 21.9. That means they can beat teams with their bats or with their pitching and defense. Their position player WAR falls just short of being the best in the division, but their pitching WAR is 12 WAR higher than the next closest team. So in their division, the Indians pitchers dominate.
There is even upside on the offensive side. Jason Kipnis tries to rebound from an off year, and Michael Brantley tries to play an injury free season. On the other hand, Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, and Jose Ramirez performed at such a high level, they might fall back a bit. Overall, the core WAR of 45 seems right to me, and that gives the Indians an excellent chance to win the division again.
Minnesota Twins
- Position Player WAR: 23.3
- Pitcher Total: 9.7
- Core Total: 33.0
The Twins appear to be in the same spot as the Indians of a few years ago. Minnesota owns a young, solid core that is developing toward a championship level. The position players are already excellent, and their core WAR total of 23.3 is the best in the division, 0.1 more than the Indians. Brian Dozier, Byron Buxton, Eddie Rosario, and Miguel Sano gives the team a long-term base. Note that the Twins are stronger up the middle than any other team in the division. That’s a very good sign.
The pitching side is weaker, so the Twins brought in Lance Lynn and Jake Odorizzi to shore up the rotation. They combined for 1.5 WAR in 2017. If they can up that to six WAR in 2018, the Twins have a very good chance of returning to the wild card game. If lots goes wrong for Cleveland, the Twins are ready to pounce for the division. I see their 33 core WAR as a floor, not a ceiling.
Kansas City Royals
- Position Player WAR: 9.2
- Pitcher Total: 6.7
- Core Total: 15.9
The Royals are a meh team. Whit Merrifield and Danny Duffy are good, but neither is good enough to carry the team. Kansas City carries a number of players who have seen better days, like Alex Gordon and Lucas Duda. Some of their players, like Alcides Escobar, were never that good.
The do have some upside potential in Jake Junis and Jorge Soler. Junis displayed a low walk rate in his 2017 half season. Soler was prized by the Cubs at one time. Both are still young enough that we should expect them to improve. Unless they both turn in five WAR seasons, however, the Royals will have a tough time finishing third in the division this season.
Chicago White Sox
- Position Player WAR: 13.6
- Pitcher Total: 3.1
- Core Total: 16.7
The White Sox get my pick as the potential surprise of 2018 in the division. There are four players in the core who are capable of post higher WARs. Two of them, Yoan Moncada and Nicky Delmonico just need to repeat their 2017 averages over a full season. Lucas Giolito is on the verge of developing into an ace. Carlos Rodon is capable of a much better walk rate. These four could add nine WAR to the core total. That and some lucky breaks could bring the White Sox above .500. This team appears to be moving slowly in the right direction, and a second place finish is not out of the question.
Detroit Tigers
- Position Player WAR: 4.8
- Pitcher Total: 8.0
- Core Total: 12.8
I didn’t think I’d see the day where both Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez posted negative WARs. I’d like to think they have lots of upside as they bounce back, but Martinez posted a negative WAR in two of the last three years, and plays 2018 as a 39-year-old. Cabrera plays 2018 as a 35-year-old. While he may bounce back, I doubt we’ll see a 5+ WAR season from him again. He’s also a terrible first baseman. On offense, it looks like the Tigers need to find a new first baseman and move Cabrera to DH in an attempt to keep him healthy through the 2023 season.
Unfortunately, even if those two have one last hurrah, there’s not a lot backing them up. Michael Fulmer is the only star on the team at his point. It shouldn’t be 2003 bad for the Tigers, but I can imagine the Indians beating them by the curvature of the earth.
Summary
The Indians should be strong again, with Minnesota putting up a good fight. I suspect next season things will tighten up among the Indians, Twins, and White Sox.
Probability of winning the division
- Cleveland Indians 55%
- Minnesota Twins 25%
- Chicago White Sox 10%
- Kansas City Royals 8%
- Detroit Tigers 2%
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