The division previews continue with the NL Central. I try to get a handle on the wins for the core of the team. That includes the starting position players, the starting rotation, and the closer. I use a combination of depth charts, along with news stories to determine those groups. For wins, I use FanGraphs WAR from 2017, making conservative guesses for players not in the majors in 2017. As a rule of thumb, add 50 to the core WAR to get to a season win level. You can see the spreadsheet with the data here.
On a team of great players, Anthony Rendon quietly posted the best numbers on the team in 2017. Photo credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
Washington Nationals
- Position Player WAR: 25.7
- Pitcher Total: 19.1
- Core Total: 44.8
The Nationals send pretty much the same team to the field as they did in 2017. Michael Taylor takes over for Jayson Werth, and A.J. Cole gets the fifth rotation slot. They own the highest position player core WAR, and the highest pitching core WAR in the division. Given that Adam Eaton, Trea Turner, and Bryce Harper spent significant time on the disabled list in 2017, the 44.8 WAR is more likely a floor than a ceiling. The seasonal age 21 Victor Robles may join them soon after tearing up the minor leagues.
Of course, there is downside. Ryan Zimmerman, Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, and Gio Gonzalez are not young anymore. Daniel Murphy is still recovering from off-season surgery. The Nationals are so good, however, that they could survive major hits to two of those players. That’s especially true in a division where other teams are improving, but not quite ready for the next level.
Miami Marlins
- Position Player WAR: 11.8
- Pitcher Total: 4.9
- Core Total: 16.7
Despite all the trades, the Marlins do not own the lowest position player WAR in the division. They really aren’t that different than the Phillies when you look at 2017 numbers. The difference is there is little room for suprises in the lineup. Maybe Brian Anderson repeats a performance out of line with his minor league numbers. Maybe Lewis Brinson lives up to his minor league numbers. So they play well and bring the position core up to 15. That doesn’t really help much.
The pitching staff isn’t all that different from 2017, and it is poor. The 4.9 pitcher core WAR is way below the rest of the team, and there’s little hope that it will get better. As they rebuild, the Marlins really need to work on developing a good rotation. They were not going to win a division with this group, although an intact offense might have gotten them over .500.
Atlanta Braves
- Position Player WAR: 14.1
- Pitcher Total: 7.8
- Core Total: 21.9
The Braves continue to build toward a better team. Ronald Acuna is not included in the calculation. He’s been a great minor league player and hit very well at AAA in 2017, when he was seasonal age 19. The Braves are keeping him down to delay his free agency and get seven years out of him, but he could make add a lot of what Nick Markakis or Preston Tucker has to offer.
Dansby Swanson suffered a sophomore slump, so there is upside there, as well as with Ozzie Albies. If these three youngsters can add six to eight WAR to the team, the Braves are looking at a second place finish.
The pitching still needs some work, but one step at a time. A jump from 72 wins to 80 would be a reasonable goal for the team.
New York Mets
- Position Player WAR: 9.7
- Pitcher Total: 7.4
- Core Total: 17.1
The Mets own the lowest position players core WAR in the division. They keep bringing in old players to hold places for the youngsters, but the youngsters never seem to drive out the veterans. The Mets are not going to win with their bats this year.
The pitching, however, holds a tremendous amount of upside. A healthy year by Noah Syndergaard and the Mets are close to even with the Phillies and Braves. Syndergaard, Matt Harvey, and Seth Lugo all had pretty good springs. If those three could combine for 12 WAR, the Mets could have a second place finish.
Staying healthy is the problem, however. New manager Mickey Callaway was brought in to address that issue after his work with the Indians. If the Mets rotation stays healthy, this might be one of those seasons when a manager really deserves the credit for the wins.
Rhys Hoskins power brings hope for better days to Phillies fans. Photo credit: Jonathan Dyer-USA TODAY Sports
Philadelphia Phillies
- Position Player WAR: 12.4
- Pitcher Total: 11.6
- Core Total: 24.0
The Phillies give the impression they are going to be competing this season. That may be true, but it’s not obvious to me that it’s true. Maikel Franco continued his downward trend in an age range where most players improve. Rhys Hoskins put up great numbers in the minor leagues, but he didn’t tear up the minors like superstars often do. Nick Williams also played better in the majors than I would have expect given his minor league numbers. Those three do offer a great upside to the Phillies offense, I’m just not sold on their production for the up coming season.
Jake Arrieta might really be a 2.4 WAR pitching now, rather than the four to seven WAR pitcher of a few years ago. In the rotation, I’d look for upside from Ben Lively, who walked just two batters in 23 innings this spring.
Like the Braves, the Phillies are on their way up, but they need all the youngsters playing well to win a wild card.
Summary
In general, the division is getting younger and stronger. It probably won’t happen this year, but age curve will soon bend away from the Nationals in favor of the Braves and Phillies. Washington should win the NL East easily. It’s possible a healthy Mets pitching staff could bring New York into competition, but it would more likely bring about a nice three-way battle for second place.
Probability of winning the division
- Washington Nationals 60%
- Philadelphia Phillies 15%
- Atlanta Braves 14%
- New York Mets 8%
- Miami Marlins 3%
If you like this series, place consider a donation to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive.
from baseballmusings.com https://ift.tt/2GDp3pQ
No comments:
Post a Comment