The 2018 series on team offense continues with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. The Angels finished twenty second in the major leagues and eleventh in the American League in 2017 with 4.38 runs scored per game.
I am using RotoChamp as a source of default lineups. That Mike Scioscia order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):
Best lineup: 5.14
Probable lineup: 5.02
Worst lineup: 4.74
Regressed lineup: 4.61
The Angels offense should be much improved for 2018. A full season from Mike Trout would help all by itself. Replacing Danny Espinosa with Ian Kinsler should be a win. Justin Upton should be better than Ben Revere. So the team should score well.
I thought the default lineup was going to do poorly compared to the optimum, however. That was not the case. My guess is that so much of the value of the lineup lies in Mike Trout, that as long as he bats high, the team will score. Still, the lineup doesn’t make a lot of sense even in terms of classic lineup construction.
Albert Pujols batting fourth struck me as a poor choice. The fourth hitter should be one of the best on the team. The cleanup slot requires power to drive in runs and the ability to get on base to set up the bottom of the order. Pujols, now, does neither. I suspect that his 101 RBI last season will be used as an excuse (he knows how to drive in runs). He had the fourth most runners on base in 2017, and a more powerful hitter might have driven in 130 runs, like Nolan Arenado did.
Secondly, if Mike Trout is to bat second, the worst hitter on the team, Martin Maldonando, should not bat ninth. I understand not wanting to bat a pitcher ninth, but in the AL, the secondary lead-off hitter makes a lot of sense. Andrelton Simmons is perfect for that role.
Thirdly, Zack Cozart and his high OBP should be used higher in the order.
The Angels will be better, but not as good as they could be.
I was surprised that Shohei Ohtani is not in the default lineup. He is two for 20 in spring training so far, with seven strikeouts. Maybe the two-way player idea was just a pipe dream.
You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.
Help support this series and the LAT by donating to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive.
Previous posts in this series:
- Introduction
- Houston Astros
- New York Yankees
- Colorado Rockies
- Chicago Cubs
- Washington Nationals
- Cleveland Indians
- Minnesota Twins
- Arizona Diamondbacks
- Texas Rangers
- Boston Red Sox
- Miami Marlins
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- St. Louis Cardinals
- Cincinnati Reds
- Seattle Mariners
- Baltimore Orioles
- Oakland Athletics
- Detroit Tigers
- New York Mets
- Atlanta Braves
- Milwaukee Brewers
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