Thursday, March 22, 2018

Team Offense, San Francisco Giants

The 2018 series on team offense continues with the San Francisco Giants. The Giants finished twenty ninth in the major leagues and fourteenth in the National League in 2017 with 3.94 runs scored per game.

I am using RotoChamp as a source of default lineups. That Bruce Bochy order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. For the pitchers slot, I used the actual values produced by the Giants pitchers in 2017. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):

Best lineup: 4.75
Probable lineup: 4.51
Worst lineup: 4.23
Regressed lineup: 4.28

I like the default lineup, but if the Giants are going to put Austin Jackson‘s projected .339 at the bottom of the order, they might as well bat him ninth and give second place hitter Brandon Belt more runners to drive around the bases.

My first thought looking at the projections was that the top four might be in the opposite order. The LAT moves Buster Posey from fourth to first, but leaves Belt in the two hole, move Joe Panik from lead-off to third, and bats Andrew McCutchen fifth instead of third. In general, the default lineup groups players decently.

The great news for Giants fans is the default lineup is about 0.6 runs per game better than the team scored in 2017. If they live up to that level, we’re looking at about nine more wins just from the improved offense. It should be a much better year on the western side of the bay.

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Previous posts in this series:



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