The division previews continue with the NL Central. I try to get a handle on the wins for the core of the team. That includes the starting position players, the starting rotation, and the closer. I use a combination of depth charts, along with news stories to determine those groups. For wins, I use FanGraphs WAR from 2017, making conservative guesses for players not in the majors in 2017. As a rule of thumb, add 50 to the core WAR to get to a season win level. You can see the spreadsheet with the data here.
Yu Darvish represents the Cubs big winter acquisition. Photo credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
Chicago Cubs
- Position Player WAR: 21.7
- Pitcher Total: 15.4
- Core Total: 37.1
The Cubs looked like a super team in 2016, and in fact were a super team. After that World Series championship, they looked like an even better super team, especially given that they were getting Kyle Schwarber back in the lineup. While they did win the division by a decent amount, it took them a while to get going.
The club blamed the step backwards on a World Series hangover. It’s quite possible, however, that career years that took place in 2016 were not repeatable. Maybe Schwarber, Javier Baez, Addison Russell, and Kyle Hendricks aren’t as great as they appeared.
So the Cubs go into 2018 looking like a very good team, but one that is not a lock for a division. I do suspect their 37.1 core WAR is a floor, not a ceiling. I would expect those with down years in 2017 to bounce back somewhat toward their 2016 numbers. Yu Darvish is a great addition to the pitching staff. Ian Happ likely has not shown his best yet. Even Kris Bryant should still be improving.
It’s a season for Cubs fans to be optimistic, but not overly so.
Milwaukee Brewers
- Position Player WAR: 20.1
- Pitcher Total: 13.4
- Core Total: 33.5
Once again, the Brewers are set to compete in the NL Central, and their core WAR does not even include Ryan Braun. The Brewers finished second in the division in 2017 on the strength of their pitching. This winter, Milwaukee took advantage of the slow free agent market and the Marlins fire sale to land Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich. Along with Domingo Santana, the Brewers outfield will be on par with the excellent trio in St. Louis. The lineup boasts a number of players in their early primes or younger, so there is hope for even more improvement on the offense.
If the pitchers can repeat their performance from 2017, we should see more wins from the Brewers in 2018, and maybe a division title.
Marcell Ozuna represents the Cardinals big acquisition of the winter. Photo credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
St. Louis Cardinals
- Position Player WAR: 26.0
- Pitcher Total: 11.9
- Core Total: 37.9
The Cardinals also benefited from the Marlins fire sale, adding Marcell Ozuna to their outfield. His addition gives St. Louis a wide lead in the division in position player WAR. The Cardinals are by far the best team up the middle with a C-2B-SS-CF WAR of 13.1, compared 8.6 WAR for the Cubs.
The rotation brings in Luke Weaver and Miles Mikolas to fill in for Lance Lynn and Mike Leake. They rank fourth in core pitching WAR, but the top four teams are close enough that the Cardinals own the best over all core WAR in the division.
There is some upside as well. The keystone combination of Kolten Wong and Paul DeJong are young enough that they should still be improving. If the Cardinals can get three good months out of Adam Wainwright, he should beat that 1.5 WAR of last year. The Cardinals are designed to get back to the top of the division, and they might very well be the favorites.
Pittsburgh Pirates
- Position Player WAR: 10.2
- Pitcher Total: 12.1
- Core Total: 22.3
The Pirates come into the season with a solid rotation. No one is great, but no one is terrible, either. James Taillon posted a 2.9 WAR in just 133 2/3 innings. A full season from him should add some wins. Overall, the Pirates pitching core ranks third in the division.
The problem for the Pirates lies in their offense. Four starters posted WARs under 1.0 in 2017. The Pirates replaced Andrew McCutchen with Corey Dickerson, and that was really just a loss of 1.1 WAR. The team was unlikely to produce runs with or without McCutchen.
The best Pirates fans can hope is that the team wins a number of close, low scoring games and finishes around .500. I don’t think they’ll ever sink to the depths of the post-Bonds era, the front office and field management is too good for that.
Cincinnati Reds
- Position Player WAR: 19.3
- Pitcher Total: 5.9
- Core Total: 25.2
The Reds surrounded superstar Joey Votto with some decent players. Cincinnati should score decently. There even looks to be some upside in that lineup.
The pitching is a huge question mark, however. Maybe Homer Bailey is finally healthy and puts up a three or four WAR season. The rest of the rotation has potential, but they will all need to realize it for the Reds to move up significantly in the division. It should take much to move out of the cellar, however.
Summary
The Brewers, Cardinals, and Cubs appear to be evenly matched. I suspect the Cubs have the most upside, but this should be a nice three-way battle for the division.
Probability of winning the division
- Chicago Cubs 32%
- St. Louis Cardinals 30%
- Milwaukee Brewers 28%
- Cincinnati Reds 6%
- Pittsburgh Pirates 4%
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