The division previews begin with the AL East. I try to get a handle on the wins for the core of the team. That includes the starting position players, the starting rotation, and the closer. I use a combination of depth charts, along with news stories to determine those groups. For wins, I use FanGraphs WAR from 2017, making conservative guesses for players not in the majors in 2017. As a rule of thumb, add 50 to the core WAR to get to a season win level. You can see the spreadsheet with the data here.
Mookie Betts keeps his eye on the ball as he hits a spring training single. Photo credit: Douglas DeFelice-USA TODAY Sports.
Boston Red Sox
- Position Player WAR: 20.8
- Pitcher Total: 16.8
- Core Total: 37.6
The Red Sox won the division in 2017, and look like they will compete for a playoff spot again. The core is already solid, with upside potential from Rafael Devers, Jackie Bradley, and Hanley Ramirez on offense. David Price and Rick Porcello offer the same in the starting staff.
The wild card here is J.D. Martinez. He is coming off a career year at age 29, a career year that was not a full season. Martinez, in fact only played 150 games once in his career. That was the only year he broke 130 games. If he can keep up his 2017 pace for 150 games, the Red Sox offense will be great. If Porcello and Price bounce back, the rotation will be great. The Red Sox will need all three to win the division.
Aaon Judge keeps his eye on the ball as he unwinds a home run. Photo credit: Butch Dill-USA TODAY Sports
New York Yankees
- Position Player WAR: 33.4
- Pitcher Total: 17.4
- Core Total: 50.8
A core WAR of 50 screams super team. A 50 WAR puts a team at or near 100 wins before including the bench and the back of the bullpen. It means a team possesses a deep lineup and a deep rotation. There’s plenty of room for things to go wrong and still win big.
When the core number is that big, there usually is downside. Player regress from good years, and some of the older ones, like Brett Gardner, CC Sabathia, and Neil Walker might fall off. The Yankees, however, are not counting on them to carry the team. There is still plenty of upside in Greg Bird, Aaron Judge, and Gary Sanchez. Giancarlo Stanton gives them another great slugger in his prime. Didi Gregorious is still in his prime. On top of that, they Yankees have untapped potential at the minor league level that might be better than some of their penciled in starters.
In the division, the Yankees have highest core WAR for both their hitters and their pitchers. They have a WAR up the middle (C-2B-SS-CF) of 13.7, 4.7 WAR higher than any other team in the division. This may be the best Yankees team since 1998. That team had a great set of superstars surrounded by solid role players. We may see this group reach similar heights.
Kevin Kiermaier keeps his eye on the ball deep into the hitting zone as he hits a ground rule double. Photo credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports
Tampa Bay Rays
- Position Player WAR: 9.4
- Pitcher Total: 10.2
- Core Total: 19.6
The Rays come in with the lowest position player WAR in the division, and they are close to the lowest pitching WAR as well. This analysis probably does not capture the Rays pitching well, however. Tampa Bay is going innovative, going with a four-man rotation and limiting starters to twice through the lineup. That makes their bullpen more important, as I suspect it will be unusual for the starters to go five innings.
The position players do have upside. Matt Duffy missed all of 2017 due to injury. If he can get back to his 2015 level, it would be a nice boost for the Rays. Mallex Smith is just coming into his prime, and had a great OBP in the minors. If he could post a .340 OBP season, that would help the Rays. Brad Miller hit 30 home runs two years ago, but injuries cost him since then.
All that said, I think the ceiling for the Rays is around 80 wins. If you ceiling is 80 wins, however, the front office needs to do a better job of tanking.
Josh Donaldson watches a home run leave his bat. Photo credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports
Toronto Blue Jays
- Position Player WAR: 15.8
- Pitcher Total: 14.0
- Core Total: 29.8
The departure of Jose Bautista should help the offense. The Rays basically replaced him with Curtis Graderson, another older player, but at least Granderson has some life in his bat. They could use a bounce-back season from Kendrys Morales as well. If a DH posts a negative WAR, the team is not clear on the concept of what a DH should do. Morales may be one of the reasons teams were loathe to give aging sluggers contracts this year.
The biggest upside for the Jays comes on the arm of Aaron Sanchez. His outstanding 2016 season was followed by blister problems in 2017. If Sanchez returns to a 3+ WAR level, the Jays rotation will be even with the Yankees and Red Sox. That would put them at a level where a playoff appearance is possible if everything else goes right.
Jonathan Schoop carefully watches a ball that will turn into a double. Photo credit: Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports
Baltimore Orioles
- Position Player WAR: 12.6
- Pitcher Total: 9.6
- Core Total: 22.2
The Orioles are my bet for playing much better than their core projection. Chris Davis and Chris Tillman turned in awful seasons in 2017. If they are just not awful, the team is much better. Manny Machado is capable of much more than a 2.2 WAR season, and he moves to shortstop where his bat should be even more valuable. Austin Hays is just 22 years old and raked in the minors. I am not a big Mark Trumbo fan, but if a bad DH is keeping a team from a playoff spot, eat his contract and find someone who at least posts a positive WAR.
This is a very good team up the middle. That makes it easier to fill in pieces around the edges.
This core could easily post a WAR in the low 30s, which would put them in contention for a playoff slot. It is usually a bad idea to underestimate a Duquette/Showalter team.
Summary
For the first time in many years, the AL East shows little balance. The Yankees and the Red Sox are the clear favorites, while the other teams need everything to go right to catch the two power houses. This used to be normal in this division; I prefer the balance. Still it will be fun to see how many wins the Yankees can accumulate.
The move away from parity becomes clear when you compare the cores to last year. The Yankees are the only team that improved.
All of the teams chasing the Yankees have plenty of upside potential. The Orioles are my surprise team for the division, and I am very interested in seeing how the Rays rotation works.
Probability of winning the division
- New York Yankees 60%
- Boston Red Sox 20%
- Baltimore Orioles 8%
- Toronto Blue Jays 7%
- Tampa Bay Rays 5%
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Post script: I intentionally chose the photos to show just how amazing MLB hitters are at following the ball, both to the bat and off the bat.
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