Tuesday, March 20, 2018

Team Offense, Toronto Blue Jays

The 2018 series on team offense continues with the Toronto Blue Jays. The Jays finished twenty sixth in the major leagues and last in the American League in 2017 with 4.28 runs scored per game. They scored one fewer runs than the Rays, tying them at two decimal places in runs per game.

I am using RotoChamp as a source of default lineups. That John Gibbons order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):

Best lineup: 5.15
Probable lineup: 5.08
Worst lineup: 4.89
Regressed lineup: 4.65

It looks like the Blue Jays made real improvements in their offense. Aledmys Diaz should be an improvement at shortstop, and Curtis Granderson should easily improve on Jose Bautista‘s poor 2017. I’m not sure Randal Grichuk is an improvement over the Blue Jays leftfielders, but he won’t be any worse, and Grichuk is still in his prime.

As for the lineup, the split is correct, but the order is different. The LAT agrees with the default lineup on which players should bat one through four and five through nine, just not the ordering. I actually do like Diaz batting ninth, although the LAT puts him fifth. Diaz ninth and Josh Donaldson batting second I suspect would work very well.

Blue Jays fans should get more offense to enjoy this season. If things work out, the Jays could make a huge jump offensively.

You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.

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Previous posts in this series:



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