Tuesday, March 13, 2018

Team Offense, Seattle Mariners

The 2018 series on team offense continues with the Seattle Mariners. The Reds finished fifteenth in the major leagues and seventh in the American League in 2017 with 4.63 runs scored per game.

I am using RotoChamp as a source of default lineups. That Scott Servais order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):

Best lineup: 5.09
Probable lineup: 5.04
Worst lineup: 4.86
Regressed lineup: 4.63

This is another example of a team where it is tough to get the order wrong. There is a very small spread between the best and worst lineups. The LAT agrees with Nelson Cruz and Kyle Seager batting four and five. It also likes the Dan Vogelbach, Dee Gordon, and Jean Segura sequence, but 8-9-1 instead of 9-1-2. There are some top lineups with Robinson Cano following those three, although the LAT likes Cano cleaning up the second half of the order.

The worry for the Mariners are all the red crosses next to the starters on the RotoChamp page. Possibly four of these starters will not be ready for opening day. A healthy Mariners lineup should be much improved, but staying healthy this spring proved difficult. Of course, better injured in spring that during the regular season.

You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.

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Previous posts in this series:



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