The division previews continue with the NL West. I try to get a handle on the wins for the core of the team. That includes the starting position players, the starting rotation, and the closer. I use a combination of depth charts, along with news stories to determine those groups. For wins, I use FanGraphs WAR from 2017, making conservative guesses for players not in the majors in 2017. As a rule of thumb, add 50 to the core WAR to get to a season win level. You can see the spreadsheet with the data here.
Corey Seager stands as the best of a number of great players on the Dodgers. Photo credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Los Angeles Dodgers
- Position Player WAR: 26.5
- Pitcher Total: 17.0
- Core Total: 43.5
The depth of the Dodgers allow them to absorb an injury to a star like Justin Turner. Turner goes down, Logan Forsythe moves to third, veteran Chase Utley moves to second, and the Dodgers don’t really lose much from the lineup. The upside of the younger position players should balance the downside of the veterans. The Dodgers also have the knack of seeing and realizing the potential of someone like Chris Taylor.
There is upside on the pitching side. Clayton Kershaw likely comes back strong after an off-year for him. Alex Wood might give the team 200 innings for the first time.
It’s a team of stars and solid complementary players, just what is needed to win a championship.
Zack Greinke turned in a strong 2017 for the Diamondbacks after a disappointing season in 2016. Photo credit: Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports
Arizona Diamondbacks
- Position Player WAR: 17.4
- Pitcher Total: 19.4
- Core Total: 36.8
The front office of the Diamondbacks built a solid team. They have a five-plus WAR player on each side of the ball, Paul Goldschmidt and Zack Greinke. They surround them with a number of two and three WAR regulars. Up the middle, they still have some upside at second base and shortstop with Ketel Marte and East Longmeadow’s own Nick Ahmed. The go into the season with the best pitching core WAR in the division. The Diamondbacks just need a little good luck and some bad luck by the Dodgers to win the division.
Denver native Kyle Freeland had no problem adjusting to pitching at Coors Field. Photo credit: Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports
Colorado Rockies
- Position Player WAR: 17.2
- Pitcher Total: 10.2
- Core Total: 27.4
The Rockies put a number of strong players on the field, but a number of weak ones at well. They plan to start the season with Ian Desmond at first base, who produced a -0.2 WAR in 2017. There usually is some lumbering, slugging first baseman available somewhere. If Colorado wants to win a championship, they should do better at the position.
A key will be Trevor Story. The shortstop can slug, but his 191 strikeouts in 2017 cut down his batting average and his OBP. He needs to close the hole in his swing to make the team stronger up the middle.
The pitchers may get a boost from Chris Iannetta at catcher. He was brought in to make a good pitching staff better, to be the calming, veteran presense. Even without Iannetta, this was a pretty good rotation for the Rockies in 2017.
This team is tough to figure, but I am cautiously optimistic.
New addition Eric Hosmer owns the highest 2017 WAR, 4.1, of anyone in the Padres core. Photo credit: Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports
San Diego Padres
- Position Player WAR: 13.9
- Pitcher Total: 6.9
- Core Total: 20.8
The Padres won 71 games in 2017, and the core looks prepared to do that on it’s own. On the other hand, I don’t see a lot of upside to the core. When is Wil Myers going to be a star? This is his seasonal age 27 season, and his only great year came at age 22. Freddy Galvis and Chase Headley are veterans with little upside. Maybe Tyson Ross stays healthy in the rotation. Bryan Mitchell has yet to impress at the major league level. The Padres improved, but that might not be enough to finish above fifth in a strong division.
A hand injury to Madison Bumgarner put a damper on a Giants hopes for a return to the playoffs. Photo credit: Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports
San Francisco Giants
- Position Player WAR: 19.3
- Pitcher Total: 8.9
- Core Total: 28.2
I thought this would show the Giants with upside to their pitching, with Madison Bumgarner back healthy. His last minute broken hand, and an injury to Jeff Samardzija leaves the pitcher WAR looking about right. Mark Melancon could provide some upside in the closer role.
Evan Longoria and Andrew McCutchen do make the Giants better on offense, but they are not what they once were. Gone are the when they might combine for 12 WAR. Five or six is more likely this season. I suppose that playing for a team that does seem to be committed to winning, to taking the extra step for a championship might get them to up their game. If they could recapture some of their old glory, then a wildcard might by in the offing for the Giants.
Summary
Once again, the Dodgers are the clear favorites in the division. I expect the Diamondbacks will stay in the division race longer this season, and the Giants, despite the injuries, will make some noise. The Padres likely finish last, as they are improving for the long run, not the short run like the Giants.
The Rockies are the toughest team to call. Maybe the pitching takes a big step forward. Maybe they find a first baseman who contributes. I can imagine scenarios where they win the division, and ones in which they lose by the curvature of the earth. It’s spring and a time for optimism, so I’m leaning toward them being better instead of worse.
Probability of winning the division
- Los Angeles Dodgers 50%
- Arizona Diamondbacks 25%
- San Francisco Giants 10%
- Colorado Rockies 9%
- San Diego Padres 6%
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