Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.286 — Jose Altuve batting against Matt Moore
0.286 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Luis Perdomo
0.275 — Trey Mancini batting against Kyle Gibson
0.268 — David Peralta batting against German Marquez
0.267 — Adam Jones batting against Kyle Gibson
0.266 — Jonathan Schoop batting against Kyle Gibson
0.265 — Yoenis Cespedes batting against Michael Wacha
0.264 — Christian Yelich batting against Luis Perdomo
0.264 — Chris Owings batting against German Marquez
0.263 — Manny Machado batting against Kyle Gibson
0.263 — Orlando Arcia batting against Luis Perdomo
0.263 — Ryan Braun batting against Luis Perdomo
0.263 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Zack Greinke

The value represents the expected hit average against the pitcher. Hit average is hits/PA, the probability of getting a hit when a batter steps to the plate. This early in the season, it is almost entirely based on the previous two years of batting. So we get Jose Alutve, who is very good, and Lorenzo Cain, batting against a pitcher who is relatively bad.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.286, 0.715 — Jose Altuve batting against Matt Moore.
0.286, 0.693 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.263, 0.687 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Zack Greinke.
0.275, 0.683 — Trey Mancini batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.259, 0.678 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Zack Greinke.
0.260, 0.676 — Elvis Andrus batting against Lance McCullers.
0.261, 0.674 — Ender Inciarte batting against Vincent Velasquez.
0.261, 0.674 — Nolan Arenado batting against Zack Greinke.
0.254, 0.673 — Jose Ramirez batting against James Paxton.
0.253, 0.673 — Avisail Garcia batting against Ian Kennedy.

The first value in this list is the same as above, but the second value is the probability of getting a hit in the game. If you will, it takes into account that the batter won’t face the starting pitcher the whole game. The probabilities are low right now due to the league average for position players starting the season down at .204. With enough data, that is usually around .230. In general, the best players on any given day show a probability of a hit around .750.

Today, the two systems agree that Jose Altuve and Lorenzo Cain are the best picks. Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

If you find these posts helpful, why not donation to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive? Today is the last day.

from baseballmusings.com https://ift.tt/2pVjk4p