The division previews continue with the AL Central. I try to get a handle on the wins for the core of the team. That includes the starting position players, the starting rotation, and the closer. I use a combination of depth charts, along with news stories to determine those groups. For wins, I use FanGraphs WAR from 2017, making conservative guesses for players not in the majors in 2017. As a rule of thumb, add 50 to the core WAR to get to a season win level. You can see the spreadsheet with the data here.
Corey Kluber leads a strong Indians rotation. Photo credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Cleveland Indians
- Position Player WAR: 23.2
- Pitcher Total: 21.9
- Core Total: 45.1
The Indians are one of the most balanced great teams seen so far. Their position player core WAR comes in at 23.2, their pitching WAR is close at 21.9. That means they can beat teams with their bats or with their pitching and defense. Their position player WAR falls just short of being the best in the division, but their pitching WAR is 12 WAR higher than the next closest team. So in their division, the Indians pitchers dominate.
There is even upside on the offensive side. Jason Kipnis tries to rebound from an off year, and Michael Brantley tries to play an injury free season. On the other hand, Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, and Jose Ramirez performed at such a high level, they might fall back a bit. Overall, the core WAR of 45 seems right to me, and that gives the Indians an excellent chance to win the division again.
Minnesota Twins
- Position Player WAR: 23.3
- Pitcher Total: 9.7
- Core Total: 33.0
The Twins appear to be in the same spot as the Indians of a few years ago. Minnesota owns a young, solid core that is developing toward a championship level. The position players are already excellent, and their core WAR total of 23.3 is the best in the division, 0.1 more than the Indians. Brian Dozier, Byron Buxton, Eddie Rosario, and Miguel Sano gives the team a long-term base. Note that the Twins are stronger up the middle than any other team in the division. That’s a very good sign.
The pitching side is weaker, so the Twins brought in Lance Lynn and Jake Odorizzi to shore up the rotation. They combined for 1.5 WAR in 2017. If they can up that to six WAR in 2018, the Twins have a very good chance of returning to the wild card game. If lots goes wrong for Cleveland, the Twins are ready to pounce for the division. I see their 33 core WAR as a floor, not a ceiling.
Kansas City Royals
- Position Player WAR: 9.2
- Pitcher Total: 6.7
- Core Total: 15.9
The Royals are a meh team. Whit Merrifield and Danny Duffy are good, but neither is good enough to carry the team. Kansas City carries a number of players who have seen better days, like Alex Gordon and Lucas Duda. Some of their players, like Alcides Escobar, were never that good.
The do have some upside potential in Jake Junis and Jorge Soler. Junis displayed a low walk rate in his 2017 half season. Soler was prized by the Cubs at one time. Both are still young enough that we should expect them to improve. Unless they both turn in five WAR seasons, however, the Royals will have a tough time finishing third in the division this season.
Chicago White Sox
- Position Player WAR: 13.6
- Pitcher Total: 3.1
- Core Total: 16.7
The White Sox get my pick as the potential surprise of 2018 in the division. There are four players in the core who are capable of post higher WARs. Two of them, Yoan Moncada and Nicky Delmonico just need to repeat their 2017 averages over a full season. Lucas Giolito is on the verge of developing into an ace. Carlos Rodon is capable of a much better walk rate. These four could add nine WAR to the core total. That and some lucky breaks could bring the White Sox above .500. This team appears to be moving slowly in the right direction, and a second place finish is not out of the question.
Detroit Tigers
- Position Player WAR: 4.8
- Pitcher Total: 8.0
- Core Total: 12.8
I didn’t think I’d see the day where both Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez posted negative WARs. I’d like to think they have lots of upside as they bounce back, but Martinez posted a negative WAR in two of the last three years, and plays 2018 as a 39-year-old. Cabrera plays 2018 as a 35-year-old. While he may bounce back, I doubt we’ll see a 5+ WAR season from him again. He’s also a terrible first baseman. On offense, it looks like the Tigers need to find a new first baseman and move Cabrera to DH in an attempt to keep him healthy through the 2023 season.
Unfortunately, even if those two have one last hurrah, there’s not a lot backing them up. Michael Fulmer is the only star on the team at his point. It shouldn’t be 2003 bad for the Tigers, but I can imagine the Indians beating them by the curvature of the earth.
Summary
The Indians should be strong again, with Minnesota putting up a good fight. I suspect next season things will tighten up among the Indians, Twins, and White Sox.
Probability of winning the division
- Cleveland Indians 55%
- Minnesota Twins 25%
- Chicago White Sox 10%
- Kansas City Royals 8%
- Detroit Tigers 2%
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