The division previews finish with the AL West. I try to get a handle on the wins for the core of the team. That includes the starting position players, the starting rotation, and the closer. I use a combination of depth charts, along with news stories to determine those groups. For wins, I use FanGraphs WAR from 2017, making conservative guesses for players not in the majors in 2017. As a rule of thumb, add 50 to the core WAR to get to a season win level. You can see the spreadsheet with the data here.
Houston Astros
- Position Player WAR: 32.9
- Pitcher Total: 17.9
- Core Total: 50.8
The Astros are another super team. Their two highest WAR players in 2017 were Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa, their middle infielders. Their up the middle core WAR stands at 18.8, the highest in the majors. Dallas Keuchel, at 2.5 WAR, posted the lowest number in the rotation in 2017. The team is strong top to bottom.
There is not a lot of room for improvement, however. When all the players on a team combine for career years, there usually is some kind of regression. Maybe age catches up with Justin Verlander again. Maybe some of the young guns on offense take a step back. We saw this with the Cubs after they won the 2016 World Series.
So the 50.8 core WAR is a ceiling. They can fall pretty far, even give up 10 WAR, and still win the division. A very good front office built an excellent team.
Mike Trout remains the best hitter in baseball. Photo Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
- Position Player WAR: 26.3
- Pitcher Total: 5.9
- Core Total: 32.2
The Angels look stronger this season after bringing in Zack Cozart and Ian Kinsler. Those two combined for 7.4 WAR in 2017, and give some more oomph to the lineup around Mike Trout. One move that the Angels could make is the benching of Albert Pujols. He produced a negative two WAR in 2017. If they could find a two WAR DH, that would be four more in the win column for Anaheim.
Maybe the Angels thought Shohei Ohtani would be the answer. He hit like a pitcher in spring training, going 4 for 32. He did not pitch well, although he didn’t appear to get many innings in recorded spring training games. I penciled him in as a one WAR pitcher, but the Angels are hoping for more than that.
That is the key to the Angels season. The rotation produced just 4.3 WAR in 2017. They will need to at least double that for LAnaheim to compete for the division or a wild card. It may just be a matter of staying healthy. That would provide a great deal of upside to the team.
Seattle Mariners
- Position Player WAR: 22.8
- Pitcher Total: 9.7
- Core Total: 32.5
The Mariners position players boast a number of 3+ WAR members. Nelson Cruz, Mike Zunino, Kyle Seager, Dee Gordon, and Robinson Cano combined for 17.4 WAR in 2017. Cruz and Cano are gettig up in age, so there might be a fall-off there. Still, this is a solid offense/defense. I really hope they don’t let Ichrio Suzuki drag them down.
What the Mariners need is for Felix Hernandez to return to form. A four WAR season from him would give the Mariners a great chance at wild card berth, and possibly a division win. There is upside in the rotation.
Texas Rangers
- Position Player WAR: 14.4
- Pitcher Total: 9.5
- Core Total: 23.9
I should be writing about all the upside in the Rangers lineup. Rougned Odor, Joey Gallo, Delino DeShields, and Nomar Mazara are all at an age in which they should be improving. Odor posted a -2 WAR in 2017. Mazara played his second full season, showing no improvement. Gallo is a three-true outcomes hitter at a very young age. They are useful, but not great. Deshields looks like he settled into a table setter, now he needs to build on that.
It’s that lack of progress that has me down on Texas. If those four could jump two WAR each, with a comeback by Cole Hamels, the Rangers might be in the wild card hunt. It’s also possible that either those four youngsters didn’t have star talent, or the Rangers didn’t develop it properly.
Oakland Athletics
- Position Player WAR: 16
- Pitcher Total: 5.7
- Core Total: 21.7
At 21.7, Oakland owns the lowest core WAR in the division. They are however not at the bottom of either the position player nor the pitcher ranks. That’s little solace. The thing to look for with Oakland is a bounce back year from Stephen Piscotty, and better handling of the pitching staff thanks to the arrival of Johnathan Lucroy.
The rotation is a very young staff, and none of them is a master of all three-true outcomes. They strike out two few or walk too many, or allow two many home runs. More experience should help, a better catcher should help. The A’s doing well depends on this staff maturing into a solid unit. That may take another year, however. For 2018, it looks like another last place finish.
Summary
The Astros look like the easy winners of the division, but the Mariners and Angels have enough pitching upside to turn this into a three-way race. The latter two should at least battle for the wild card. If there were to be a surprise in the division, it would come from the Oakland starting rotation being much better than they performed in 2017.
Probability of winning the division
- Houston Astros 55%
- Seattle Mariners 18%
- Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim 17%
- Texas Rangers 6%
- Oakland Athletics 4%
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