Wednesday, March 14, 2018

Team Offense, New York Mets

The 2018 series on team offense continues with the New York Mets. The Mets finished tied for eighteenth in the major leagues and ninth in the National League in 2017 with 4.54 runs scored per game.

I am using RotoChamp as a source of default lineups. That Mickey Callaway order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. For the pitchers slot, I used the actual values produced by the Mets pitchers in 2017. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):

Best lineup: 4.57
Probable lineup: 4.40
Worst lineup: 4.06
Regressed lineup: 4.21

Last October I called the Mets old, and a comment took me to task for that. Adding Todd Frazier and Adrian Gonzalez didn’t make the team any younger. The Mets may have younger hitters in the pipeline, they don’t appear to be ready.

That said, Callaway did a good job with the batting order. The LAT agrees with Brandon Nimmo and Yoenis Cespedes setting the table. The LAT likes Jay Bruce fourth instead of third, and Adrian Gonzalez batting ninth instead of fifth. As Gonazlaez’s power is gone, he’s more useful serving as the secondary lead-off hitter.

The good news is that this Mets lineup should score about the same as last season’s offense. If they can add some better youngsters along the way, they might even get better. If the pitching staff can stay injury free, they could win with this offense.

You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.

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Previous posts in this series:



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