Thursday, March 15, 2018

Team Offense, Atlanta Braves

The 2018 series on team offense continues with the Atlanta Braves. The Braves finished tied for twentieth in the major leagues and tied for tenth in the National League in 2017 with 4.52 runs scored per game.

I am using RotoChamp as a source of default lineups. That Brian Snitker order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. For the pitchers slot, I used the actual values produced by the Braves pitchers in 2017. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):

Best lineup: 4.60
Probable lineup: 4.33
Worst lineup: 3.92
Regressed lineup: 4.17

A pick of a fly in the ointment here is the inclusion of Preston Tucker. The Braves plan may be to start Tucker, keep Ronald Acuna down to delay the start of his service time clock, the go with Acuna in the outfield for the rest of the season. Tucker posted good minor league numbers in the Houston system, but they did not translate to the major leagues. He might play better than this projection, but if Acuna is ready once his service time clock allows the Braves to keep him for seven years, he’ll be out of the lineup.

Apart from that, it’s a very good lineup built on OBP. Everyone except Preston projects to be at least decent, and there’s plenty of youth for upside potential. Although the Mets and Braves project out to similar run scoring numbers, I would wager the Braves end up far ahead of the Mets by the end of the season. Atlanta, despite the international player scandal, looks like they are offensively ready to move up in the league.

You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.

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Previous posts in this series:



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