The 2018 series on team offense continues with the Cincinnati Reds. The Reds finished fourteenth in the major leagues and eighth in the National League in 2017 with 4.65 runs scored per game. That was also the major league average.
I am using RotoChamp as a source of default lineups. That Bryan Price order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. For the pitchers slot, I used the actual values produced by the Reds pitchers in 2017. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):
Best lineup: 4.72
Probable lineup: 4.38
Worst lineup: 3.97
Regressed lineup: 4.20
The Reds own the largest spread so far between the best and worst lineups, 0.75 runs. Due to that, lineup construction is very important to this team. There are a lot of areas of agreement between the Reds default lineup and the LAT. Both put Jesse Winker second. Although the order is reversed, both put Eugenio Suarez and Scooter Gennett back to back, followed by Jose Peraza and Scott Schebler (again with the order switched).
It might appear that the glaring mistake is batting Billy Hamilton first, or batting Joey Votto third. Interestingly enough, swapping Hamilton and Tucker Barnhart, or Hamilton and Votto, doesn’t up the Reds runs per game by that much. This may be a lineup that really needs the pitcher batting eight to maximize offense. The 17th lineup down does have Votto first and Hamilton third, but the big difference is the pitcher batting eighth.
It might have been worth it for the Reds to sign Ichiro Suzuki to teach Hamliton how to hit high hoppers to third base. Ichiro’s hot zone was the ball down and away, out of the strike zone. He would hammer that ball into the ground, and by the time it got to the third baseman, Ichiro had beaten it out. At this point, I doubt Hamilton will learn to draw more walks, so using his speed to get on base should be a priority.
Note, too, that Marcels knock Votto way off his 2017 numbers. Marcels see age lowering Votto’s ability, but his .429/.536 OPB/Slug is still great.
You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.
Help support this series and the LAT by donating to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive.
Previous posts in this series:
- Introduction
- Houston Astros
- New York Yankees
- Colorado Rockies
- Chicago Cubs
- Washington Nationals
- Cleveland Indians
- Minnesota Twins
- Arizona Diamondbacks
- Texas Rangers
- Boston Red Sox
- Miami Marlins
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- St. Louis Cardinals
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