The division previews continue with the AL Central. I try to get a handle on the wins for the core of the team. That includes the starting position players, the starting rotation, and the closer. I use a combination of the STATS, Inc. depth charts and the CBSSports depth charts, along with news stories to determine those groups. For wins, I use FanGraphs WAR from 2015, making conservative guesses for players not in the majors in 2015. As a rule of thumb, add 50 to the core WAR to get to a season win level. You can see the spreadsheet with the data here.
Kansas City Royals
- Position Player WAR: 22
- Pitcher Total: 9.5
- Core Total: 31.5
The Royals own the strongest position player core WAR in the division. Given that the offense doesn’t project to bet that great, I suspect a lot of that value lies in their defense. In fact, FanGraphs rated the 2015 Royals offense below average, with the defense well above average. When you think of the Royals position players, it’s more appropriate to think of them as vacuum cleaners than artillery. It’s sometimes fun to think about what a team of Babe Ruths could do on offense. The Royals appear to have shown that you can win with a team of Billy Hamiltons.
The defense also means there is upside to the back of the rotation, now consisting of Ian Kennedy, Chris Young, and Kris Medlen. All three failed to crack the 1.0 WAR level in 2015. Medlen and Young both saw limited innings in 2015, Medlen due to recovery from Tommy John surgery, Young due to his role as a swing man. A full season from both should raise their value.
There is little downside in the core. Lorenzo Cain is the only player who might regress a bit, but he is young and fully capable of repeating a six WAR season. The 31.5 core total looks like a good base for the team, so the Royals will compete again in what looks to be a tough division.
Minnesota Twins
- Position Player WAR: 12.9
- Pitcher Total: 7.5
- Core Total: 20.4
The Twins go into the season looking like the weakest team on paper, but with tremendous upside due to the youth on the roster. Byron Buxton, Eddie Rosario, and Miguel Sano are all pre-prime based on seasonal age. They could be great, or they could flame out. I have to believe Joe Mauer can hit better than he did in 2015, but catching does take a lot out of a player. If he really is a 0.3 WAR player, the Twins should find a better option at first base. There is no reason to lose a playoff spot for lack of offense at that position.
Byung Ho Park is also a bit of an unknown. If he provides power at the DH slot, that will certainly help the cause.
The pitching is more of a problem. All the starters are known quantities. There may be some upside to Phil Hughes and Ervin Santana, but they are not going to change into lights out aces.
The Twins could finish last in the division, or compete for the wild card. Any prediction for this team will come with a high amount of uncertainty.
Cleveland Indians
- Position Player WAR: 19.4
- Pitcher Total: 17.4
- Core Total: 36.8
The Indians are the strongest team in the division in terms of core WAR, and that at the moment does not include Michael Brantley, who starts the season on the disabled list. They are also nicely balanced, with about a 53-47% split between core position players and core pitchers. They are not dependent on one group having a great year to win.
The Indians are strong up the middle with the highest value for Catcher+2b+SS+CF in the division at 11.6 WAR. Jason Kipnis and Francisco Lindor account for half the position player WAR. Again, that is without Michael Brantley, as true rookie Tyler Naquin fills in. There is age around the edges however, that mean we may see some down side from the rest of the players.
The rotation is solid. Corey Kluber and Carlos Carassco are as good as any 1-2 in the division.
Cleveland looked good going into the 2015 season, also. We’ll see if they can hold it together this year.
Chicago White Sox
- Position Player WAR: 13.0
- Pitcher Total: 18.2
- Core Total: 31.2
The White Sox rid themselves of a number of their WAR negative players, and replaced them with better, but not great players. They were so underwater with some of their players, just by bringing in some slightly positive WARs they improve the team. Add to that the power of Todd Frazier and the White Sox have a much better lineup.
One place that should still be easy to improve is DH, where Avisail Garcia posted a -1.1 WAR in 2015. He is just entering his prime years, so if he is going to figure out the game, now is the time. If he can hit like a two WAR player, the White Sox will get a big boost.
The pitching is solid top to bottom. The front of the rotation with Chris Sale and Jose Quintana is the best in the division, and the core WAR of the pitchers also ranks highest in the division. It’s a good team, right there with the Royals and the Tigers.
Detroit Tigers
- Position Player WAR: 18.0
- Pitcher Total: 9.8
- Core Total: 27.8
Once again, the Tigers try to patch up the team with the hope of winning. Justin Upton is a good patch, but the high WAR players in the lineup are getting old. Miguel Cabrera is great when he’s healthy, but he can’t stay healthy enough to post another monster season. Victor Martinez showed a big decline last season. Ian Kinsler, Justin Verlander, and Jordan Zimmermann are more likely to fade than improve. The window to win is closing fast on the Tigers. They are perfectly capable of winning the division, but they need both Victor Martinez and Cabrera to stay healthy and post big numbers. A return to form by Verlander would help as well.
Probability of winning the division:
All five teams are capable of winning the division, but Cleveland has the best shot. Given the long World Championship drought, they should put all the resources they can into winning this year.
- Cleveland Indians: 30%
- Chicago White Sox: 21%
- Kansas City Royals: 20%
- Detroit Tigers: 19%
- Minnesota Twins: 10%
This should be a fun division to watch in 2016.
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/1SuIH2i
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