The division previews continue with the NL West. I try to get a handle on the wins for the core of the team. That includes the starting position players, the starting rotation, and the closer. I use a combination of the STATS, Inc. depth charts and the CBSSports depth charts, along with news stories to determine those groups. For wins, I use FanGraphs WAR from 2015, making conservative guesses for players not in the majors in 2015. As a rule of thumb, add 50 to the core WAR to get to a season win level. You can see the spreadsheet with the data here.
Los Angeles Dodgers
- Position Player WAR: 17.6
- Pitcher Total: 16.1
- Core Total: 35.4
The Dodgers own the best pitching core WAR in the division, with Clayton Kershaw exceeding the core pitching total of the Rockies, and coming close as compared to the Padres. The rest of the rotation is solid, with true rookie Ross Stripling having some upside. He starts his major league career mature at age 26, and showed great control in the minors.
There is not a lot of downside to the position player WAR. Yasiel Puig has the talent to post better than a 1.5 WAR in a season. We’ll see if new manager Dave Roberts can bring out the best in Puig. Joc Pederson has an MLB season under his belt, and we’ll see if he can improve. Corey Seager looks like a star. The position player WAR ending much higher than the 17.6 WAR accumulated last year.
The Dodgers go into 2016 with a good, but not necessarily dominating team. They’ll need to get as much upside as possible out of the core to win the division.
San Francisco Giants
- Position Player WAR: 26.3
- Pitcher Total: 12.8
- Core Total: 39.1
The Giants being their quest to win their fourth even year World Championship in a row with the highest core wAR in the division, thanks to the highest position player core WAR. It’s an impressive infield, with all five players coming off a 2015 in which each earned at least four WAR. The numbers for the outfielder leave a little to be desired, but each was hampered by injury in 2015, so there is plenty of upside there.
Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardjiza join Madison Bumgarner to give the Giants an excellent group of top three starters. If Matt Cain can get his groove back, there’s upside in the rotation as well.
The Giants are well positioned to win the division.
Arizona Diamondbacks
- Position Player WAR: 15.9
- Pitcher Total: 13.8
- Core Total: 29.7
The Diamondbacks took a big hit as A.J. Pollock broke his elbow just as spring training was ending. Socrates Brito slides in as Pollock’s replacement, a hit of six WAR. Of course, Brito produced his 0.4 WAR in a small number of games. If he can get that up over two in a full season, the DBacks will take less of a hit to Pollock’s 6.6 WAR.
The big improvement to the team came in the acquisition of Zack Greinke and Shelby Miller, both capable of producing ace seasons.
The Diamondbacks pitching is on a par with the Giants, and their position players are on a par with the Dodgers. With Paul Goldschmidt and Zack Greinke, they have the two stars to anchor the team. We’ll see if the rest of the roster can complement them. They are not the strongest team in the division, but they are just a couple of career years away from competing.
San Diego Padres
- Position Player WAR: 8.5
- Pitcher Total: 8.9
- Core Total: 17.4
Wil Myers and Matt Kemp, two of the big names acquired by the Padres before the 2015 season, combined for one WAR. They get another chance to shine this year, with Myers now playing first base. Kemp is getting a little old for upside, but the Padres have to hope he has at least a two WAR season left in him. Myers needs to play to his potential. There doesn’t seem to be anyone else among the Padres position player core with star power. They are by far the weakest set of position players in the division.
The rotation is okay. There may be some upside there with James Shields, Colin Rea, and Drew Pomeranz. A positive WAR season by Fernando Rodney would help as well.
That’s a lot to ask. The Padres simply don’t have the talent to compete in 2016.
Colorado Rockies
- Position Player WAR: 15.0
- Pitcher Total: 6.8
- Core Total: 21.8
The Rockies put Mark Reynolds at first base after a -0.1 WAR season in 2015. He posted low slugging percentages in three of his last four seasons. There should be better ways to solve the first base hole left by Justin Morneau. The position players aren’t bad, they just could be much better with a decent first baseman.
There’s upside with rookie Trevor Story taking over at shortstop. I don’t think he’ll be as good as Troy Tulowitzki, but if he has a chance to lay the groundwork for a substantial career.
The rotation is poor, and that puts more pressure on the offense to score. The Rockies should fight the Padres for the bottom of the division.
Probability of winning the division
This should be an excellent fight between the Giants and the Dodgers. If Brito can play well, the Diamondbacks will be in it as well.
- Giants 40%
- Dodgers 35%
- Diamondbacks 20%
- Rockies 3%
- Padres 2%
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/1X7ETIb
No comments:
Post a Comment