Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN).

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.341 — Daniel Murphy batting against James Shields
0.318 — Danny Valencia batting against Chase Anderson
0.318 — Aledmys Diaz batting against Alfredo Simon
0.316 — Stephen Piscotty batting against Alfredo Simon
0.315 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Wei-Yin Chen
0.315 — Martin Prado batting against Ricky Nolasco
0.314 — Matt Adams batting against Alfredo Simon
0.311 — Corey Seager batting against Chris Rusin
0.311 — Christian Yelich batting against Ricky Nolasco
0.309 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Ricky Nolasco

It looks like a good day to face Alfredo Simon or Ricky Nolasco.

The NN produces this result:

0.283, 0.745 — Jose Altuve batting against Yu Darvish.
0.289, 0.741 — Howie Kendrick batting against Chris Rusin.
0.315, 0.741 — Martin Prado batting against Ricky Nolasco.
0.311, 0.740 — Christian Yelich batting against Ricky Nolasco.
0.315, 0.740 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.341, 0.739 — Daniel Murphy batting against James Shields.
0.318, 0.738 — Danny Valencia batting against Chase Anderson.
0.295, 0.736 — Yunel Escobar batting against Nathan Eovaldi.
0.279, 0.733 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Madison Bumgarner.
0.286, 0.732 — Josh Harrison batting against Noah Syndergaard.

I find anyone against Yu Darvish odd to be at the top of a list, but for 2016, Darvish’s numbers are getting pulled toward the mean as he only faced 43 batters so far. That’s one you should take with a grain of salt. On the other hand, Altuve owns one of the best three-year hit averages in the list, so he tends to do well anyway. Xander Bogaerts against Madison Bumgarner is a slightly better example of this. On a three-year basis, Bumgarner’s hit average is better that league average against position players (.220 vs. .229), but not outstanding. So high hit average player like Bogaerts does well.

Martin Prado seems to be the consensus pick, followed by Murphy and Valencia.

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