Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.291 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Wily Peralta
0.286 — Charles Blackmon batting against Wily Peralta
0.284 — Gerardo Parra batting against Wily Peralta
0.281 — Jose Altuve batting against James Paxton
0.281 — Nolan Arenado batting against Wily Peralta
0.276 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Wily Peralta
0.270 — Mark Reynolds batting against Wily Peralta
0.269 — Jose Abreu batting against Jordan Zimmermann
0.269 — Melky Cabrera batting against Jordan Zimmermann
0.267 — Jean Segura batting against Charlie Morton
0.267 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against Bartolo Colon

LeMahieu is at the top despite his 1 for 9 start to the season. Basically, you want to hit against Wily Peralta.

Now the NN with Park:

0.291, 0.724 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Wily Peralta.
0.281, 0.719 — Jose Altuve batting against James Paxton.
0.286, 0.713 — Charles Blackmon batting against Wily Peralta.
0.284, 0.701 — Gerardo Parra batting against Wily Peralta.
0.281, 0.699 — Nolan Arenado batting against Wily Peralta.
0.262, 0.699 — Mookie Betts batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.252, 0.698 — Daniel Murphy batting against Daniel Straily.
0.262, 0.698 — A.J. Pollock batting against Matt Moore.
0.261, 0.695 — Dustin Pedroia batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.262, 0.695 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Jameson Taillon.

One thing about working this system over time is the NN appears to put a bit more weight on the batter than the pitcher. I very much like that the NN pulled in good hitters against Jameson Taillon. In his brief career, Taillon pitched well, allowing a low .287 OBP. Most of that comes from hits, however, as his BA against is .252. Balls that get put in play against Taillon, and so he gives up hits, but with so few walks the hits don’t do that much damage.

The consensus today is to pick DJ LeMahieu. The warning is that there is a 27% chance he doesn’t get a hit.

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2oBeeMt