The Pirates visit Fenway Park as Gerrit Cole takes on the Red Sox and reigning Cy Young Award winner Rick Porcello. Cole is coming off a down year in which injuries limited his playing time and led to his walk and home run rates going up. It’s a good sign that he walked just two in ten spring training innings this year. Porcello improved both his walk and home run rates compared to 2016, and a good Red Sox defense gobbled up balls in play behind him to help Porcello to a 22-4 record.
Justin Verlander takes the hill for the Tigers against the White Sox and their new ace, Jose Quintana. Verlander came roaring back in 2016 after two years that saw a huge drop in the strikeout rate. He wound up posting the second best single season strikeout rate of his career, and some people thought he should have won the Cy Young Award. Quintana replaces Chris Sale at the top of the White Sox rotation. Apart from pitching well, Quintana stays on the team. He ranks eighth in games started over the last four seasons. His walks, home runs, and ERA compare very favorably to the pitchers around him on that list.
This evening’s games offer two great pitching matchup. The top two winning teams from the AL in 2016 square off in Texas as Corey Kluber leads the Indians against Yu Darvish and the Rangers. Kluber pitched well in his two previous starts in Texas, allowing a total of two runs in 14 innings. Darvish struck me as a bit unlucky in 2016, and his ERA was a bit higher than his FIP. We’ll see if he improves through regression to the mean this season.
Finally, Felix Hernandez takes on Dallas Keuchel as the Mariners open the season in Houston. The former Cy Young Award winners fell on hard times in 2016. Hernandez suffered a double whammy as his strikeout rate dropped and his walk rate rose. Keuchel suffered the same fate at a lower level, and both lost time due to injuries. We will see if a winter off improved their health and their performance. Hernandez walked one and struck out 14 in 13 spring training innings, so he may be back to normal.
Enjoy opening day II!
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2nAAbXR
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