The Votto Adjustment

Mark Sheldon reports that Joey Votto made an adjustment at the plate that led to a higher home run total.

“I think it was a good thing going through the previous two years of struggles, especially last year. I think it challenged me to make changes to my game,” Votto said on Tuesday afternoon. “I think you can see some of the changes, just if you look at some of the crude numbers. Hopefully, the changes can become sustainable. I’ve been doing it for a year. I’m not trying to be coy. I don’t want to give away too much information, but I’ve definitely made changes to my style of hitting. I’m noticing the changes on the field, and certainly the results.”

Of Votto’s 24 homers entering Tuesday, a Major League-leading 17 of them traveled more than 400 feet.
According to Statcast™, Votto’s launch angle on homers has dipped slightly, from 32 percent to 31 percent. His average exit velocity on homers was 101.9 mph in 2016, and it’s 103 mph this season. He is squaring up and barreling the ball more often, and hitting the homers harder.

On this date last year, Votto had 20 barrels, with nine of them home runs. Entering play Tuesday he already has 31 barrels, with 21 of them going for homers.

Nineteen of Votto’s homers this season have been hit 100-plus mph (79.2 percent). That equals the number he had for all of last year — 19 of his 29 were 100-plus mph (65.5 percent).

I don’t buy that the launch angle is all that different. One degree could be in the range of the measurement error. Votto squaring up to the ball, however, is consistent with his much lower strikeout rate. For his career, Votto strikes out 18% of the time, this year he is striking out 11% of the time. On top of that, his BABIP is down from a career value of .354 to .295 this season. So it strikes me that Votto traded some bat speed for more contact, although it’s also possible he hit into some bad luck this year.

For a while I wanted to see what happened if Votto reduced his K rate. If he had kept his BABIP near .350, he would likely be leading the league in batting average. Instead, he’s maintaining his career BA and OBP while hitting for more power.

That’s revolutionary. Strikeouts and home runs go together, which is why strikeout rates are constantly rising year after year; it’s good for the both the batters and the pitchers. Miguel Cabrera lowered his K rate and won a triple crown. Votto lowered his K rate and increased his power. Maybe there is something there that batters need to think about. Aaron Judge or Mike Trout with a low K rate might hit .400. Votto is one of the smartest hitters in the majors; players need to decipher what he is doing and emulate it.

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2tItEAG