Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.328 — Jose Ramirez batting against Luis Perdomo
0.321 — Ender Inciarte batting against Joe Musgrove
0.313 — Matt Kemp batting against Joe Musgrove
0.313 — Brandon Phillips batting against Joe Musgrove
0.310 — Buster Posey batting against Daniel Norris
0.307 — Michael Brantley batting against Luis Perdomo
0.306 — Freddie Freeman batting against Joe Musgrove
0.305 — Trey Mancini batting against Matt Garza
0.301 — Tyler Flowers batting against Joe Musgrove
0.300 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Andrew Cashner

Jose Ramirez continues his hot hitting, getting off to a .438 start in July. He is 7 for 16 with six runs scored in four games, including a double, triple, and three home runs. Joe Musgrove, however, seems to be the pitcher to hit today. The league is hitting .308 against him this season with lots of power.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.328, 0.752 — Jose Ramirez batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.291, 0.749 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jacob deGrom.
0.295, 0.744 — Jose Altuve batting against Jaime Garcia.
0.296, 0.742 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Scott Feldman.
0.321, 0.740 — Ender Inciarte batting against Joe Musgrove.
0.292, 0.740 — Jean Segura batting against Jason Vargas.
0.292, 0.734 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Scott Feldman.
0.310, 0.733 — Buster Posey batting against Daniel Norris.
0.300, 0.733 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.313, 0.733 — Brandon Phillips batting against Joe Musgrove.

It takes Jacob deGrom to knock Murphy out of the top slot. Murphy is three for nine career against deGrom. Ramirez is the unanimous choice today.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Batter	PA since Last Hit
Michael Freeman	34
Franchy Cordero	27
Aaron Hill	23
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	23
Raul Mondesi	23
Allen Cordoba	23
Eric Fryer	23
Kyle Higashioka	20
Josh Harrison	18
Josh Donaldson	18
Mark Zagunis	18
Hyun Soo Kim	16
Patrick Kivlehan	16
Jaycob Brugman	16
Rio Ruiz	15
Kyle Seager	15
Chase D'Arnaud	15
Jonathan Villar	15
C.J. Cron	15
Greg Bird	15
Enrique Hernandez	14
Wil Myers	14
Cristhian Adames	14
Lewis Brinson	14
Ryan Schimpf	14
Emilio Bonifacio	14
Dexter Fowler	13
Chris Coghlan	13
Rob Refsnyder	12
Tyler Wade	12
Nolan Fontana	12
Nick Ahmed	12
Matt Holliday	12
Didi Gregorius	12
Leonys Martin	12
Jesus Aguilar	12
Paul Janish	12
Rajai Davis	12
Jose Iglesias	12
Steve Pearce	11
Devin Mesoraco	11
Taylor Featherston	11
Mitch Haniger	11
Kevin Plawecki	11
Clint Frazier	11
Starling Marte	11
Adam Frazier	11
Josh Bell	11
Danny Ortiz	11
Orlando Calixte	11
Tommy Joseph	11
Ian Kinsler	10
Yandy Diaz	10
Lorenzo Cain	10
Matthew Szczur	10
Norichika Aoki	10
Tom Murphy	10
Denard Span	10
Jared W. Hoying	10
JaCoby Jones	10
Ryan Zimmerman	10
Tyler Collins	10
Joey Gallo	10
Adrian Gonzalez	10
Brian McCann	10
Luis Sardinas	10
Scott Van Slyke	10
Trevor Story	10

Good luck!

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