The 2018 series on team offense continues with the Chicago Cubs. The Cubs finished fourth in the major leagues and second in the National League in 2017 with 5.07 runs scored per game.
I am using RotoChamp as a source of default lineups. That Joe Maddon order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. For the pitchers slot, I used the actual values produced by the Cubs pitchers in 2017. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):
Best lineup: 5.15
Probable lineup: 4.89
Worst lineup: 4.51
Regressed lineup: 4.53
The LAT agrees with the Cubs default lineup that Kris Bryant should bat second and that’s it. That said, I cannot argue too much with the lineup. Ian Happ has a ton of upside potential, and could turn out to be an excellent lead-off man. If so, this lineup makes perfect sense. I’ll also note that the Cubs were the only NL team to use the pitcher much in the eighth slot. If they switch Baez and the pitcher, their default lineup goes up to 5.03 runs per game.
This lineup doesn’t wow me quite as much as it did two years ago. I could easily be wrong about that, however. Kyle Schwarber does have upside, as does a seasonal age 25 Javier Baez. Maddon will tinker with his order, and by the end of the season this order might very well exceed the prediction here.
You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.
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Previous posts in this series:
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