The Arrieta Decision

Paul Stephan donated $50 or more to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive and dedicates this post to long-suffering Washington fans.

Jorge Castillo at the Washington post points out why signing Jake Arrieta is a difficult choice for the Washington Nationals. In addition to Arrieta’s recent decline:

The Nationals must weigh other factors beyond the money committed to Arrieta. If they sign Arrieta, who played under Nationals Manager Dave Martinez the past three seasons, the Nationals would relinquish their second-and-fifth highest pick in June’s draft while also surrendering $1 million in international bonus money.

To top it off, Washington is projected to eclipse the competitive balance tax threshold for the second straight year by $4.9 million, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts. As offenders of the CBT threshold in consecutive seasons, the Nationals must pay a 30 percent tax on every dollar over the tax.

Arrieta’s decline still leaves him a very good pitcher. He would slip into the third or fourth slot in the Nationals rotation, so he would not be expected to carry the team. Signing Arrieta is about getting over the playoff hump. Note that the monetary impediments to signing Arrieta are ones the union agreed to in the CBA. If the union had been committed to more freedom for all players, Arrieta might get closer to what he is worth. That’s no compensation for free agents, fewer years to free agency, no limits on international signings, and no limits on signing draft picks (or better yet, the elimination of the draft). Instead, the union agreed to limit the freedom on players, and that group is now paying the price.

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