Jay M. Nunez: March 2016

Thursday, March 31, 2016

Matt Harvey Pissed Off

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The division previews continue with the NL East. I try to get a handle on the wins for the core of the team. That includes the starting position players, the starting rotation, and the closer. I use a combination of the STATS, Inc. depth charts and the CBSSports depth charts, along with news stories to determine those groups. For wins, I use FanGraphs WAR from 2015, making conservative guesses for players not in the majors in 2015. As a rule of thumb, add 50 to the core WAR to get to a season win level. You can see the spreadsheet with the data here.

New York Mets

Position Player WAR: 24.8
Pitcher Total: 17.4
Core Total: 42.2

The Mets go into 2016 with the strongest position core WAR and the strongest pitching core WAR. That should make them the odds-on favorite to win the NL East. The Mets position players are a little long in the tooth, with 20 of their 25 core WAR coming from players who will play 2016 as 30 years old or more. Curtis Granderson, at age 35, is the most likely to suffer a big decline coming off a five WAR season. I might knock the Mets down two or three WAR for age on that side of the ball.

On the pitching side, however, Bartolo Colon is the only old player, and his ancient form balances out the youth of the rest of the rotation. The other four starters all have upside either due to age, or in the case of Matt Harvey, a year to get stronger after Tommy John surgery. That group could easily make up for a decline in offense and defense. The Mets should go into the season as the favorites.

Washington Nationals

Position Player WAR: 17.8
Pitcher Total: 15.1
Core Total: 32.9

Washington trails the Mets by a little over nine core WAR, but that may all be a result of injuries to key players. Anthony Rendon, Stephen Strasburg, Ryan Zimmerman, and Jayson Werth all missed significant time and/or saw performance declines due to injury. If that group stays healthy they could easily produce eight more WAR for the Nationals. Combine that with Tanner Roark returning to the rotation where he had success in 2014, and the Nationals have plenty of upside.

With Michael Taylor getting some experience in the majors, he serves as an insurance policy against either Werth or Zimmerman getting hurt. Taylor could take over for Werth in the outfield in he gets hurt, or if Werth moves to first for an injured Zimmerman.

The downside comes from the team being fairly dependent on great seasons from Bryce Harper and Max Scherzer. Both might fall off a little since they posted excellent seasons in 2015. Of course, we probably haven’t seen the best of Harper yet.

Washington fans should be cautiously optimistic. Strong seasons from Strasburg, Rendon, and Taylor should put them in the playoff picture at least.

Miami Marlins

Position Player WAR: 20.0
Pitcher Total: 7.4
Core Total: 27.4

Full seasons from Jose Fernandez and Giancarlo Stanton likely brings the Marlins even with the Nationals core. That alone gives the Marlins a ton of upside. In addition, the other position players, with the exception of Martin Prado, and early or pre-prime. While none of them may turn into superstars, as a group there are six players that combined might add three or four WAR total through maturity.

With very little downside, the path to the playoffs for the Marlins is simply to keep their two stars healthy. That and a little luck and they will at least compete for a wild card.

Atlanta Braves

Position Player WAR: 13.3
Pitcher Total: 2.3
Core Total: 15.6

There not much to say about the Braves as they begin a rebuild with their sights on getting better when they move into a new stadium. The position players aren’t all that bad, but they aren’t good. Freddie Freeman and Ender Inciarte give them some upside as well.

The pitching is terrible, however. Matt Wisler might develop into a good pitcher based on his minor league numbers, but there’s not much else there. They are much more likely to finish last than first.

Philadelphia Phillies

Position Player WAR: 9.3
Pitcher Total: 4.6
Core Total: 13.9

The Phillies are young again, and that’s a reason to watch this team. Five of the position players are in their early prime years or younger. It’s a fresh start for the franchise.

It will likely take a year or two for this squad to develop into a cohesive unit. I will say that if the Phillies do find themselves in contention this year, they should find a replacement for Ryan Howard. Poor hitting at first base should be easy to correct. With the young players getting better, I suspect the Phillies will pass the Braves this season.

Probabilities of winning the division:

New York Mets: 45%
Washington Nationals: 27%
Miami Marlins: 23%
Philadelphia Phillies 4%
Atlanta Braves 1%

This could be a very nice three-way race this season, with all three teams in the wild card hunt.

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Hero Month Pt 4

As much as I have been trying to get Superman done in a month it looks as if the hero month is going to run a little longer but to make myself feel better about it I am telling myself its quality of quantity or atleast what I call quality.

So far we have a few things blocked off they are the base and the cape but not the logo. since last week I have been working on his suite.

So starting with the clasic base.

then blocking out my highlight.

with the color of this I decided to keep it very simple and use vallejo Ivory to lighten the blue. Have to say I hate metal figures SO easy to chip its not fun at all.

there is not to much to say apart from to show you all were I am up to at the moment with it,

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“If You Take Away Your Products, What’s Left?”

I read a wonderful quote from Colin Shaw, “If you take away a company’s products, what do you have left?*”

It’s a critical question each sales and marketing professional needs to answer—ultimately, that’s your differentiation. That’s the value customers want that will cause you to stand out and win.

Don’t get me wrong, your products and services are what get you in the game in the first place. So great products and services are mandatory. Increasingly, however, they are table stakes.

In today’s world of complex B2B buying, by the time you’ve become shortlisted, any of the alternatives will solve the customer problem.

All your features, functions, feeds, speeds, features, benefits are meaningless. The fact that your competition may have a few more bells and whistles is meaningless.

What sets you apart and causes you to win is not your product. It’s the “stuff” that sits outside your product.

It’s a huge problem for lots of sales people. All we know are our products–yes we may know a little about our brand, our company’s strength in the markets, and so on. But the things most critical to the customer are not about the product we offer.

So what is it? It’s really about the value we create for the customer–both long before they even decided to buy, through their buying process, and the value they realize and their experience after they buy.

When you take away your products, it’s those things that are left–oddly, it’s those things that are most important to the customer.

The customer knows they can buy a solution from any number of vendors. But they are looking for help, they are looking to be educated or taught, they are looking for help in organizing to buy. They are looking for help in justifying their choice–connecting that to the critical priorities in selling to their management. They are looking to produce results–to extract the value they expected in implementing the change and selecting your solution.

Sit down right now, take a look at your most critical deals. Take your product out of it. What’s left over in the mind of the customer?

If there’s nothing–probably the only strategy is to discount the hell out of your offering, make sure you are the lowest price. But it may not be the winning strategy.

If your competitor has thought about this issue and answered the question. If there is a rich set of experiences, starting long before the customer decided to change, continuing through their buying process, moving through the value they realize, and the experience they realize with the solution—these are the differentiators, this is why customers choose a specific solution.

If you take away your product, what’s left? If you can’t answer that in terms relevant to your customer, then your ability to win–and serve your customer is very limited.

Make sure you can answer that question.

*This quote came from a wonderful article from Bob Thompson: Are You Competing on Customer Experience to Keep Up, Get Ahead, or “Leave a Dent”?

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2016 AL East Preview

The division previews continue with the AL East. I try to get a handle on the wins for the core of the team. That includes the starting position players, the starting rotation, and the closer. I use a combination of the STATS, Inc. depth charts and the CBSSports depth charts, along with news stories to determine those groups. For wins, I use FanGraphs WAR from 2015, making conservative guesses for players not in the majors in 2015. As a rule of thumb, add 50 to the core WAR to get to a season win level. You can see the spreadsheet with the data here.

Toronto Blue Jays

Position Player WAR: 29.8
Pitcher Total: 9.2
Core Total: 39.0

The Blue Jays own the highest position player core WAR in the division and the overall number as well. There is some downside here as a number of prominent players are on the downside of 30. Troy Tulowitzki, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, and R.A Dickey combined for 13.5 WAR in 2015. A ten percent decrease among the group would bring the core WAR down to 37.7. There also might be some down side with Kevin Pillar and Russell Martin, since there is a large defensive component to their WAR, and that component tends to be more volatile than offense.

The main upside is Marcus Stroman. He missed most of last season, but managed to accumulate 0.5 WAR in just four games. He could easily turn out to be a four or five WAR player.

All in all, the Jays look like a very strong team once again in 2016. They will be the team to beat in the AL East.

New York Yankees

Position Player WAR: 19.3
Pitcher Total: 13.3
Core Total: 32.6

Pitching is either a strong point or a weak point for the Yankees, depending on how you see upsides and downsides. Masahiro Tanaka and Michael Pineda should improve their WAR if they remain healthy. That’s a big if, however. CC Sabathia, now sober and with a knee brace that helped at the end of 2015, might improve. All three could just as easily end up on the sidelines, however.

The big upside on offense would be Starlin Castro. He seemed to mature as a player at the end of 2015, and maybe the change of scenery will do him good. Most of the other position players are past prime, and they are more likely to decline as a group than improve. I would bet this core comes in below the WAR stated above. The Yankees will need great years from Castro, Tanaka, and Pineda to win.

Baltimore Orioles

Position Player WAR: 20.1
Pitcher Total: 9.3
Core Total: 29.4

One of the stories of the winter was the turmoil in the Orioles player acquisition process. They found an injury with Yovani Gallardo. They failed to sign Dexter Fowler. Yesterday they released Miguel Gonzalez and decided they don’t have room for Hyun Soo Kim.

The come into 2016 with the lowest core WAR in the division, but the four teams behind Toronto are so close, they might as well be even. The big problem is that a lot of that WAR is concentrated in two players, Chris Davis and Manny Machado. The will need Matt Wieters and J.J. Hardy to bounce back, and have the pitching remain solid. A lot could go right for this team, but a lot could go wrong as well.

Tampa Bay Rays

Position Player WAR: 16.3
Pitcher Total: 13.6
Core Total: 29.9

The Rays own the worst position player Core WAR in the division. The silver lining for Tampa Bay is that the holes in this area are at first base and designated hitter. Offensive talent tends to be easier to come by at those positions. If they can just get two WAR at each of those positions, they’ll be in contention for a wild card.

There is upside in the rotation with Drew Smyly and Matt Moore each pitching partial seasons in 2015. Healthy, they give the Rays a solid front of the rotation behind Chris Archer. As usual, the Rays are a good team with flaws, but at least the offensive problems should be relatively easy to fix.

Boston Red Sox

Position Player WAR: 16.9
Pitcher Total: 13.7
Core Total: 30.6

I’ve seen the Red Sox projected to win the AL East. I don’t see that they are significantly better than the other three teams behind Toronto. Instead of going into the season with five #3 starters, they now have an ace in David Price. That gives them the highest pitching core WAR in the division, but it’s just a hair better than the Rays and the Yankees.

The Red Sox winning depends on the improvement of two players compared to 2015, Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez. They each posted about -2.0 WAR in 2015. The Red Sox need them both to flip the sign, which would add eight WAR to the total. Even then, that just brings them even with Toronto.

There is other upside, with the Xander Bogaerts and Mookie Betts at an age where they can improve on their already excellent play. The Red Sox really need the two expensive 2015 signings to play to their contracts for a division win, however.

Probability of winning the division

Toronto Blue Jays 40%
New York Yankees 17%
Tampa Bay Rays 16%
Boston Red Sox 15%
Baltimore Orioles 12%

The Blue Jays look like the most solid team in an even division. I’m actually tempted to put them at 32% and added 2% to the other four teams. This division may be determined more by the adjustments made in season than any moves made this winter.

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Pledge Drive Finale

The Baseball Musings Pledge Drive continues, with fourteen people donating $770. Can you help push the total over $1000?

I added a new payment method, the Square Cash app. My CashTag is $DavidPinto if you have the app, or you can use a browser at cash.me/$DavidPinto. Jason Gottlieb donated $20 via the app Wednesday night. Won’t 12 people join Jason and push Baseball Musings to $1000?

The team offense series using the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) is complete. If you find that tool useful, or use the Day by Day Database frequently, I hope you’ll think about a donation.

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Wednesday, March 30, 2016

The Right Wrist

Yankees left-hander Andrew Miller broke his wrist when a batted ball hit him, but it’s on his glove hand:

The left-hander threw his glove and walked into the Yankees’ dugout after pinch-hitter Willians Astudillo‘s comebacker went off his arm, just above the wrist. X-rays were negative, but a CT scan revealed a chip fracture.

New York said ”he will see a hand specialist, who will determine the next course of action.”

Miller was going to be the closer until Aroldis Chapman returned from suspension. He may be able to play with a chip on his glove hand.

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Stats in the Dugout

MLB allows dugouts to enter the 21st century:

There will be a new player in Major League Baseball dugouts this season: the iPad. Apple Inc. and MLB signed a multi-year agreement to equip every team with iPad Pro tablets to help coaching staffs make better use of data.

Teams will be able sift through performance stats from current and past seasons, weigh potential pitcher-hitter matchups, look at “spray charts” showing where a player is likely to hit a ball, even cue up videos of plays from previous games.

…

The data available on the iPads will be proprietary to each team, rather than drawing from a league-wide database.

Cool. Joe Girardi should be happy, as he doesn’t need the bulky binders anymore.

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Reyes Off the Hook

Prosecutors dropped domestic abuse charges against Jose Reyes:

Deputy prosecuting attorney Kerry Glen said she expects to file documents Wednesday to drop the case. Reyes’ wife won’t talk to prosecutors or return to Maui, she said.

“The complaining witness, Mr. Reyes’ wife, is what we call an uncooperative witness,” Glen said. “At this point, I have no other avenue for prosecution.”

If Reyes wife changes her mind, the prosecutor has two years to refile the charges. Now we wait to see what the commissioner does:

A source with knowledge of the case told ESPN’s Pedro Gomez that just because the prosecutor’s office won’t press charges does not mean MLB will let the case drop. The source told Gomez that Reyes’ situation is similar to that of New York Yankees closer Aroldis Chapman, where the Broward County District Attorney did not file charges but MLB still handed down a 30-game suspension.

I’m not surprised by this. Reyes’s wife likely has a lot more to lose if Jose Reyes is convicted. He might now play baseball again, and would forfeit millions of dollars. She might not want her children to have a father convicted of a violent crime. I’m sure there are other reasons as well. I hope she made the right decision.

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Surprises

Will Leitch expounds on the five teams he believes will surprise in 2016. One of them is a surprise inclusion on the list:

All right, all right. No reasonable person believes the Dodgers to be anything other than a serious playoff contender. They’ve made the postseason three consecutive seasons, they’ve got the biggest payroll in baseball, they’re the freaking Dodgers. I get it.

But it sure feels like the rest of baseball has forgotten about the Dodgers, doesn’t it? The Mets and (especially) the Cubs are the hipster fun young teams, with their mimes and their crazy Cespedes cars. The Giants and the Diamondbacks are the ones who made the big free-agent acquisitions in the offseason. The main news the Dodgers have made has all been bad, from their pitcher injuries to their television situation to the fact that this is going to be Vin Scully’s last season, a fact I refuse to believe.

These are all real problems for the Dodgers, but they’re disguising the fact that this is still a terrific, deep team.

Right now, it’s popular to try to knock the Dodgers down. They are one of a number of teams trying to steal “The Team Easiest to Hate” from the Yankees.

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Pledge Drive Update

The Baseball Musings Pledge Drive continues, with thirteen people donating $750. Can you help push the total over $1000?

I added a new payment method, the Square Cash app. My CashTag is $DavidPinto if you have the app, or you can use a browser at cash.me/$DavidPinto.

The team offense series using the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) is underway. If you find that tool useful, or use the Day by Day Database frequently, I hope you’ll think about a donation.

Thanks for your support!

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Tuesday, March 29, 2016

Leveraging Interruption!

Recently, I was reading a post on cold calling, it brought up the age old, “How do you generate leads without interrupting people?”

The short answer is, “You can’t!” That is, unless prospects call you, in which case we are delighted they are interrupting us!

The fact is, people choose to be interrupted–whether it’s a prospecting sales person, a colleague, a family member, any one. But we choose to be interrupted. We open the email, we pick up the phone, we respond to the knock on our office doors, we respond to the text.

Interruptions fill our work and personal lives. We choose them, or we ignore them–in which case they aren’t interruptions. We may disconnect. We may shut our office doors or go into a quiet area, choosing not to be interrupted.

Interruptions and being interrupted are always the choice and in the control of the person choosing to be interruption.

The problem, consequently, is not the interruption, but how we use that time, once someone has accepted the interruption.

People get upset when they perceive their time is wasted. It doesn’t matter who is doing the interrupting. It could be a pushy sales person, a manager, a colleague. If the interruptor wastes the time of the interruptee, that’s when the interruption become unwelcome. That’s when people who are willing to be interrupted complain about being interrupted (Isn’t it ironic, they made the choice in the first place.)

Oddly, enough, when we use their time well, they don’t believe they have been interrupted.

Our responsibility becomes, “How do we use their time well?”

Are we relevant? Are we addressing something they are concerned about now? Are we teaching them something, that’s relevant to what’s on their mind now?

Do we have a track record of always using that person’s time well? I have a number of clients saying, “Dave, your calls are never an interruption, I learn something in each one. Please feel free to call me whenever you want!” (Technically, they are an interruption, unless they are scheduled–but you get the point.)

Don’t be worried about the interruption you may cause. That’s the person you are interrupting’s choice. Just make sure you are using the time well–you are talking to them about something they care about, not what you care about.

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2016 NL Central Preview

The division previews begin with the NL Central. I try to get a handle on the wins for the core of the team. That includes the starting position players, the starting rotation, and the closer. I use a combination of the STATS, Inc. depth charts and the CBSSports depth charts, along with news stories to determine those groups. For wins, I use FanGraphs WAR from 2015, making conservative guesses for players not in the majors in 2015. As a rule of thumb, add 50 to the core WAR to get to a season win level. You can see the spreadsheet with the data here.

St. Louis Cardinals

Position Player WAR: 15.3
Pitcher Total: 13.3
Core Total: 28.6

It looks like the Cardinals are taking a step back this year. Usually the Cardinals core is strong enough to suggest playoff contention, or even a division win. The good news is that their core total may be a floor. The team has two possibilities for upside. The more likely one comes from the young hitters. Randal Grichuk and Stephen Piscotty posted good power number in under 400 plate appearances. They are just reaching their prime years, so more playing time and maturity should lead to a higher WAR.

The other chance for upside comes from the injured veterans. Adam Wainwright, Yadier Molina, and Matt Holiday were all hampered by or missed time due to injuries. The problem with looking for upside here is that these players are older now, so recovery is tougher, and they are in decline anyway. So to record the upside here, the three have to stay healthy and play well. It’s unlikely they’ll do worse than in 2015.

The Cardinals front office tends to succeed in filling gaps, and they’ll have their work cut out for them in 2016. It’s a good team, but not a great team.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Position Player WAR: 20.3
Pitcher Total: 13.0
Core Total: 33.3

The Pirates might end up a bit stronger among the position players with the return of Jung Ho Kang. He is still rehabilitating his knee after a horrendous collision last September. The numbers for the Pirates position players look good, not much upside or downside, and up in one spot might be balanced by down in another.

The addition of Franciso Cervelli worked out very well for Pittsburgh. He’ll play this season as a 30-year-old, so I’d look for the most downside there.

On the pitching side, the Pirates miracle workers try to revive the careers of Jonathon Niese and Ryan Vogelsong. If the coaches can turn each of them into two WAR pitchers, the Pirates will have an excellent chance of capturing a wild card in 2016.

Chicago Cubs

Position Player WAR: 30.1
Pitcher Total: 23.4
Core Total: 53.5

The Cubs own the best position player core WAR in the division, and the pitching core WAR in the division. The 53.5 core WAR indicates the Cubs could win 100 games with minimum contributions from the rest of the team. As a point of comparison, the 1998 Yankees finished that season with a position player core WAR of 36.6 and a pitcher core WAR of 20.2, for a 56.8 core. They won 114 games. We are not just looking at a good Cubs team, this could be an historically great team period.

It gets better, as there are a number of young players in this lineup, and they are likely to improve. That might be balanced by the veteran pitching staff declining a bit, but this number looks more like a floor than a ceiling. The Cubs should run away with the division.

Milwaukee Brewers

Position Player WAR: 5.1
Pitcher Total: 7.1
Core Total: 12.2

The core WAR for the Brewers is low, and one has to believe that this is a floor. A number of position players were part timers in 2015. Playing full time should move their WARs higher. On the other hand, there is a reason they were part time players, and a full season might accentuate their flaws. The Brewers do have the number one ranked farm system, so these players are place holders. Fans should watch for the youngsters coming up.

Cincinnati Reds

Position Player WAR: 14.2
Pitcher Total: 5.8
Core Total: 20.0

The Reds will be fun to watch as long as Joey Votto gets to bat and Billy Hamilton gets to chase down fly balls. There’s not much around them, however. One would think Jay Bruce would have some upside. It’s unusual to see a player lose his ability to hit at age 27, but for the last two years Bruce has not hit for average nor reached base at a decent rate.

The upside for the pitchers ride on the arms of Brandon Finnegan and Jon Moscot. Finnegan has the strikeouts but not the control, Moscot the control but not the strikeouts. If they can each come in at two WAR, or at least hold the fort until Homer Bailey returns, they’ll help improve the team.

Probability of winning the division

Cubs 70%
Pirates 9%
Cardinals 7%
Reds 3%
Brewers 1%

The Cubs are designed to win everything, and start a dynasty on top of that. The Pirates and Cardinals are smart organizations, so would not count them out. I will be very surprised if the Cubs lose this division, or even if it’s a close race.

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Stopping Tommy John

Via Dodgers Digest, Jeff Passan posts the first installment of his book, The Arm. Dodgers Digest concentrates on a hire for the Dodgers who just might figure out how to reduce the need for Tommy John surgery. That’s Dr. James Buffi:

Buffi’s initial research confirmed the importance of the flexor-pronator muscles in the forearm. Perhaps they were what enabled R.A. Dickey to pitch without a UCL. Maybe they explained why some pitchers stayed healthy and others didn’t. To further test his hypothesis, Buffi worked with researchers at Massachusetts General Hospital’s biomechanics lab, which captured the throwing motions of 20 college pitchers with markers as well as ground-force data collected with force plates. Buffi’s optimization algorithm fit the markers in the model as close as possible to those on the real pitchers. “The goal,” Buffi said, “is to get the model to move in exactly the same way the real pitcher moves.”

Of the 20 pitchers, 13 had no previous major arm injuries and seven did. Blinded to the results, Buffi correctly identified six of the seven injured pitchers and 12 of the 13 without injuries based solely on the model’s data. Buffi then used inverse dynamics, the standard method, to assess all 20 pitchers. It could not tell the difference between who had been injured and who hadn’t.

“I don’t want to say I can fix elbow injuries, but I think I can compensate for the thing that I found with training,” Buffi said. “It’s a really, really hard problem to solve. Hopefully I’m making some good steps toward solving it.”

Now that he is working for the Dodgers, his research will help the Dodgers prevent injuries. In a way that’s too bad. This research could help all pitchers at all levels if it proves correct. It’s too bad someone at MLB didn’t offer this person oodles of money to find a way to prevent these injuries, much like the way rotator cuff injuries are a thing of the past.

Maybe if successful, the Dodgers will be willing to sell the research to the other clubs.

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You’ve Got to Hold On, To What You’ve Got

Matt Harvey needs to urinate more often:

“It started with a bladder infection, and it created a blood clot in the bladder,” Harvey said Tuesday morning after returning to camp. “I passed it yesterday. It wasn’t a great first day [after] my 27th birthday, but we cleared that. And then we had a little procedure done this morning just to go in and check the bladder and everything was clear.”

…

Harvey said he needs to change his urination patterns to safeguard against the issue arising again.

“I guess the main issue is I hold my urine in for too long instead of peeing regularly,” Harvey said with a laugh. “I guess I have to retrain my bladder to use the restroom a little bit more instead of holding it in. I guess that’s what caused the bladder infection.”

As someone who can’t drive 10 miles without stopping to use a restroom, I can’t understand why Harvey would tolerate the discomfort. It’s not like the Mets don’t have restrooms for the players.

This reminds me of one of my favorite moments from the show Daria:

Daria – (loudly) I shouldn’t have had that tea.
Jane – (loudly) You have to go? There’s some trees over there!
Trent – (loudly) What the matter, Daria? You gotta whiz?
Jesse – (loudly) What’s wrong?
Trent – (loudly) It’s Daria. She has to pee.
Jesse – (loudly) You have to pee, Daria? You can pee behind those trees. See those trees? You can pee behind there!
(Daria gets out of van and walks toward trees)
Daria – If I’m not back in ten minutes, don’t send help.

Daria – They’re not going to make fun of me?
Jane – For peeing in the woods? They’re in a band, Daria. Those boys puke on each other on a regular basis.
Jesse – (to Trent) That reminds me: you owe me a shirt.

Despite the levity, blood clots are serious, and I’m glad this one turned out to be a minor problem.

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On The Desk - Renaissance Assassin Part 2

Welcome back to my journey with the Renaissance Assassin from Fantastic Miniatures. As I mentioned last time I decided to start with the base first to mix things up (I usually make and paint the base after the mini is mostly complete) I loaded up some of the older Assassin's Creed games for inspiration, just walking around taking pictures.

My first idea was having the assassin walking on a marble floor. The photos below being the kind of thing I was thinking of.

I decided it was too simple, I wanted to try something elaborate. One of the signature images of the Assassin's Creed games for me is Ezio (or one of the others) standing on a rooftop looking out at the city below, in fact this shot I found shows just that!

I took some more shots of different architecture around the city to help use as references.

I like the idea of having the building facade (or front if you haven't spent too much time researching architecture :P like I apparently have) with Ezio on a wooden beam looking at his target below.

I started out using some thick plasticard to create a rigid back piece for the building facade. I then cut a piece of corkboard to thicken it up.

I had some plastic beams in my bits box that, once cut to size, were perfect for edge of the roof. I used some more plasticard to add some interest underneath.

Some spare sprue (always keep your spare sprue, such a useful building material) was shaped into more interest on the rear of the fascia.

More plasticard and more cork tile was used to continue adding to the shape of the facade

I used yet more spare sprue to make a beam for the assassin to stand on, and here is the basic concept finished!

Up next I'm going to try and add stonework to the cork base. I might have to take a break from this project to start another one though as there is a competition starting on the 1^st April. It's just a small contest between friends but I'll share my progress on here when I've worked out what I'm actually going to do!

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Steerage by Searage

Ken Rosenthal discusses the contributions of Ray Searage and the Pirates staff to resurrecting the careers of a number of pitchers:

So, if injuries hit, or if one or more of the starters falter, the Pirates should be deep enough to withstand the blows. Then again, recent history suggests that at least one of the team’s reclamation projects will succeed — and if not, the Pirates will try to find others.

“We understand that the hit rate is much higher than expected,” Huntington said. “We also understand that it’s not going to be 100 percent. It hasn’t been 100 percent. But when you have really talented people, and you work through a process … Ray is the core contributor to that, but there are other people who really help Ray and have helped those pitchers have those bounceback or breakout seasons.

“We realize we can’t become overly dependent on it. At the same time, there are traits there. Each guy has had success. There are some things we believe we can build upon. And truth be told, small markets need guys like this to step forward, whether they’re your own young players, guys who take that next step in their career progression or guys who have bounceback seasons. Small markets, that’s the way we survive.”

Searage does not seem to get the press that Dave Duncan or Leo Mazzone did, and I think that’s due to Searage keeping out of the lime light. He may be doing better than both those coaching greats.

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Pledge Drive Update

The Baseball Musings Pledge Drive continues, with thirteen people donating $750. Can you help push the total over $1000?

I added a new payment method, the Square Cash app. My CashTag is $DavidPinto if you have the app, or you can use a browser at cash.me/$DavidPinto.

The team offense series using the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) is underway. If you find that tool useful, or use the Day by Day Database frequently, I hope you’ll think about a donation.

Thanks for your support!

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Monday, March 28, 2016

Is Your Prospecting Call Relevant?

You’ve all experienced this, you download a white paper, maybe you sign up to evaluate a new SaaS tool. Within minutes, the phone rings, it’s an anxious SDR.

“I see you are interested in our products, can I tell you more about them, or set up a meeting for you to learn more?

“Can I set up a demo?”

“When do you plan on buying, who will be involved in the decision making process?”

Forget that you haven’t even gotten the white paper, or the logon link to the tool. These anxious sales people are already far down the road in trying to engage with you.

I recently read the Bridge Group’s study, “Sales Development 2016.” It’s an outstanding and very comprehensive study. I was struck by some data at the beginning of the report. Respondents were asked to classify their Sales Development Models, here’ the results:

38% are designed to Set Up Introductory Meetings.
18% in Setting Up Semi-Qualified Meetings.
42% in Passing Fully Qualified Opportunities.

Are these aligned with the context of the interest of the “prospect” who has taken an action.

For example, downloading a white paper is no indication that a prospect has interest in your product. What the prospect is interested in is acquiring knowledge, something in the white paper struck them and they are interested in learning. What would happen if we changed our initial call from setting up a meeting or qualifying, to a discussion about the white paper?

What if we started asking questions like, “What are you looking to learn? What’s driving your interest in this topic?” It seems like a perfect teaching moment, perhaps there is knowledge beyond that in the white paper that we can share.

Sometimes, I ask the people calling, “I haven’t had a chance to read it yet, what are the most salient points?” I bet you can guess, the majority have never read the white paper, usually they respond, “It’s about [Reiterating the title]” Sometimes you get someone who’s read it, and I ask a simple follow up question, “Why should that be important to me?” Again, most of the time, people stumble, shifting into, “Our product addresses all those issues, Our customers are getting huge value from our product, Can I set up a meeting with someone who can answer your questions?”

It seems like a great opportunity that SDR’s miss. I have expressed interest–but not in a product or in a follow-on meeting. I’ve expressed interest in learning, in acquiring knowledge. I might be open to being taught. Doesn’t it make sense to engage me on that basis, to develop a relationship, then at some point move it to “Are you interested in a solution?”

Signing up for an evaluation provokes even worse calls. I suppose it’s natural, the person signing up has expressed some interest in the product, at least enough to try it out. But assuming I’m ready to buy or even getting ready to buy is really jumping the gun.

What if we changed our approach, “Is there anything you are really focused on in your evaluation? Can we help you get the most out of the 30 days you are investing to learn about our product?” It seems the first conversation should be contextually relevant, which is about the evaluation, not about buying.

Recently, with a client, we made that simple change in the first call. First call conversions to additional conversations quintupled within 30 days. Conversions to sales skyrocketed–because people were successfully completing the evaluation.

Our conversations with customers always need to be contextually relevant, whether it’s the first conversation, or somewhere in the middle of their buying process.

Wouldn’t we be much more effective in engaging our customers, if our first conversation was about the action they took–which drives the call, rather than what we want to do — which is to push a meeting or qualify them? Wouldn’t we have more good conversations? Wouldn’t we engage customers in what’s important to them, ultimately converting more to qualified opportunities?

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is it healthy to take a Steam Bath Daily?

Is Taking a Steam Bath Daily Healthy?

taking a steam bath daily

Numerous medical studies have proved that steam baths provide many health and beauty benefits. A steam bath not only opens pores that allow impurities to leave the body, but it will improve circulation, soothe achy joints and relaxes tired muscles. In a vast majority of cases, how often people use steam baths is a personal matter, but the question still remains, is a daily steam bath healthy? Fortunately, the answer is yes…but.

Yes…But?

In colonial times, Benjamin Franklin took daily steam baths by an open window. He believed that once the steam drew toxins from the body, fresh air would cause them to evaporate. In colonial times, hot baths with lots of steam were the prescribed treatment for many ailments.

Not much has changed from colonial times to the present. There are many people who enjoy the health–and social–benefits offered with steam baths. Fortunately, many medical practitioners endorse this, but with a caveat: watch the duration.

Generally speaking, a daily steam bath taken by a healthy person poses no health risks. The danger that hides in the shadows is when there are extenuating health circumstances that might be affected by those steam baths. For example, people with heart ailments should exercise caution when using steam baths due to the added stress posed by such a regimen. This is not to say that they should not use steam baths, just that they should exercise caution when doing so. The key, in these cases, is held by that patient’s doctor, who should be consulted prior to using a steam bath.

Even for people who are generally heathy, however, the duration of steam baths–not necessarily their frequency–should be kept at 20-30 minutes per day. Doing this every day by a healthy person should pose no health risks.

At Perfectbath.com, we’re not in the business of dispensing medical advice. The only person who should be advising you in such situations is your physician. We can point to the numerous benefits that have been and continue to be enjoyed by those who use steam baths for their health benefits. Further, anyone, healthy or not, should seek the advice of their physician prior to beginning a regimen of regular steam baths.

At Perfectbath.com, we can assist you with any questions you might have about steam baths and steam showers for your home. Contact us today for more information about how you can enjoy the full benefits of steam baths for both your physical and mental health right in your own home.

Contributed by:Aaron Gruenke foremost Sauna and Bath expert.

The post is it healthy to take a Steam Bath Daily? appeared first on Perfect Bath Canada.

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Team Offense, 2016, Summation

The LAT generated run values for every team based on Musings Marcels projections and default lineups for the 30 teams. This post presents some observations.

The spread sheet is now sorted by the regressed runs per game, which should be the best estimate from the data of what a team will score. The range goes from 4.69 runs per game at the high end for the Blue Jays to 3.72 runs per game at the low end for the Phillies. The mean of that column is 4.20 runs per game, while the median is 4.23. The majors averaged 4.25 runs per game in 2015.

The biggest projected improvements in terms of rank go to the Tigers and the Mariners. The Tigers project to move from fifteenth to second, while the Mariners move from 21st to third. The Cubs would be the biggest mover in the NL going from 16th to the majors to 10th overall and first in the NL. The ranked sixth in the NL in 2015.

The biggest loser would be the Rockies. Fifth in the majors in 2015, they project to drop to 24th. The Diamondbacks are not far behind, dropping from eighth to 23rd. In the AL the Royals from seventh in the majors to 20th in the majors, and last in the American League. The Yankees also project to a huge drop, from second to 17th.

The award for lineup closest to the optimum calculated by the LAT is a tie between the Cubs and the Orioles at 89.66%. The Astros and Red Sox are close behind at 86.21% and 84.00% respectively. They are four of the more sabermetrically savvy organizations in baseball, which gives me some confidence that the LAT does a good job.

Let me know what you think in the comments.

You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.

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Previous posts in this series:

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Team Offense, Atlanta Braves

The 2016 series on team offense continues with the Atlanta Braves. The Braves finished last in the majors in 2015 with 3.54 runs scored per game. That was 0.24 runs per game worse than any other team.

Once again I am using a combination of RotoChamp and USA Today as a source of default lineups. The RotoChamp lineup wins here as it appears to more accurately reflect the top of the order used recently in spring training. That Fredi Gonzalez lineup is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. For the pitchers slot, I used the Braves 2015 pitcher numbers. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):

Best lineup: 4.08
Probable lineup: 3.85
Worst lineup: 3.44
Regressed lineup: 3.75

The Braves offense offers Freddie Freeman, who is a true star, the early prime (note, not young) Jace Peterson and Ender Inciarte, and a bunch of veterans past their prime, among which only Nick Markakis gets on base at a decent rate. The team is in a holding pattern until the minor league prospects are major league ready. Don’t expect a lot from the Braves this year.

You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.

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Sick Not Hurt

Matt Harvey is sick with a mystery ailment:

"His arm is fine," Terry Collins stresses of Matt Harvey. But clearly something's up. Collins called Harvey's ailment "a mystery." #Mets

— Anthony DiComo (@AnthonyDiComo) March 28, 2016

I’m going to assume Zika until I know better.

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Team Offense, Miami Marlins

The 2016 series on team offense continues with the Miami Marlins. The Marlins finished twenty ninth in the majors and fourteenth in the National League in 2015 with 3.78 runs scored per game.

Once again I am using a combination of RotoChamp and USA Today as a source of default lineups. The RotoChamp lineup wins here as it appears to more accurately reflect the top of the order used recently in spring training. That Don Mattingly lineup is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. For the pitchers slot, I used the Marlins 2015 pitcher numbers. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):

Best lineup: 4.51
Probable lineup: 4.31
Worst lineup: 3.89
Regressed lineup: 4.07

There is a great range of talent among the Marlins position players, as seen in the wide gap between the best and worst lineups. When that is the case, the LAT tends to present a lineup that most managers would not consider. The LAT likes Christian Yelich leading off with Giancarlo Stanton batting second. These two are so much better than any other players on the team at getting on base and hitting for power, that it is important to get them as many plate appearances during the season as possible.

Dee Gordon, however, fits the profile of a lead-off hitter in so many ways. He gets on base okay, he’s fast, he lacks power. He may work better as a ninth hitter with the pitcher batting eighth, however, or as the number three hitter who can keep a rally alive. (See the second and third best lineups.)

I would like the traditional lineup more if they simply moved Marcell Ozuna out of the two hole and shifted the next three or four hitters up one.

The Marlins offense should also be fascinating to see how Barry Bonds and Don Mattingly improve the players. Both know hitting, and if Bonds can teach his pitch judgement and explosiveness at the plate, we might actually see a coach add some runs to the offense. That, and keeping Stanton healthy. Things should be better in Miami this year.

You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.

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Pledge Drive Update

The Baseball Musings Pledge Drive continues, with thirteen people donating $750. Can you help push the total over $1000?

I added a new payment method, the Square Cash app. My CashTag is $DavidPinto if you have the app, or you can use a browser at cash.me/$DavidPinto.

The team offense series using the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) is underway. If you find that tool useful, or use the Day by Day Database frequently, I hope you’ll think about a donation.

Thanks for your support!

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1:1’s, Leveraging An Important Management Coaching Tool

The team at WideAngle and their CEO, Jon Birdsong hosted several of us in a fascinating discussion on One On Ones.

Jon invited Shelley Gaynes of Gee Wiz Consulting, Rob Beattie of Thompson Reuters, and me for a fascinating discussion on what One On Ones are, how we are most effective in connecting with our people, how we leverage One On Ones to drive learning, development and performance.

It was a hugely fun conversation and learned a huge amount. I was flattered and appreciate Jon and the WideAngle Team inviting me to participate. By the way, if you aren’t familiar with WideAngle, they provide a great tool to help managers conduct and follow up One On One’s

In the session, I make an offer for a free chapter from my soon to be published book: Sales Manager Survival Guide. It’s the chapter on One-On-Ones. If you want a copy of that chapter, please send me a note, dabrock@excellenc.com

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Sunday, March 27, 2016

Team Offense, Chicago White Sox

The 2016 series on team offense continues with the Chicago White Sox. The White Sox finished twenty eighth in the majors and last in the American League in 2015 with 3.84 runs scored per game.

Once again I am using a combination of RotoChamp and USA Today as a source of default lineups. The RotoChamp lineup wins here as it takes into account the retirement of Adam LaRoche. That Robin Ventura lineup is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):

Best lineup: 4.69
Probable lineup: 4.60
Worst lineup: 4.40
Regressed lineup: 4.27

The White Sox overhauled their lineup over the winter, and the projections show they show be much improved. On top of that, the default lineup captures a good deal of the run production of the best lineup. The White Sox and the LAT agree on the one, four, and five slots, with the three players at the bottom of the order matching in a different order.

The big difference is the position of Brett Lawrie, batting second in the default lineup. I suppose the White Sox believe Lawrie, at seasonal age 26, can recapture the OBP of his rookie season. At this point, the .314 projection might be generous. I suspect that if Lawrie’s OBP remains low, he’ll drop in the batting order.

All-in-all, Chicago fans should see a lot more run scoring this season.

You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.

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Team Offense, Philadelphia Phillies

The 2016 series on team offense continues with the Philadelphia Phillies. The Phillies finished twenty seventh in the majors and thirteenth in the National League in 2015 with 3.86 runs scored per game.

Once again I am using a combination of RotoChamp and USA Today as a source of default lineups. The USA Today lineup wins here due to the top of the order being closer to what the Phillies are using in Spring Training. That Pete Mackanin lineup is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. For the pitchers slot, I use the actual Phillies pitchers as batters numbers from 2015. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):

Best lineup: 4.02
Probable lineup: 3.82
Worst lineup: 3.49
Regressed lineup: 3.72

Odubel Herrera, Cesar Hernandez, and Maikel Franco is a decent 1-2-3 for the Phillies, although the LAT lines them up slightly differently. The real problem in this order comes fourth, with the increasing poor Ryan Howard in the most important power slot in the lineup. I suspect, as Howard is the last remnant of the Phillies glory days, he’s going to get the star slot.

At this point, it won’t make much difference. This is a much younger team than we’ve seen in recent years. That means a lot of upside, but also a lot of disappointment. I assume this will be Howard’s last season with the Phillies, as they are likely to buy out his 2017 option at the end of the season.

The good news for Phillies fans is this is no longer an old team trying to regain lost glory. A new generation is rising that will be hungry for their own championships. Just don’t expect a miracle this season.

You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.

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The Shortstop Story

Trevor Story appears to have won the Rockies shortstop job. He made an adjustment in 2014 that paid off:

The scouting line on the 6-foot-1, 180-pound Story at the time said he had plenty of pop in his bat but didn’t make enough contact and was a pull hitter.

But in 2014, he dumped 40 strikeouts off his ledger and began spraying the ball around — and his on-base-percentage jumped 62 points.

“His approach is to the big part of the field, an opposite-field approach,” Rockies manager Walt Weiss said. “I haven’t seen him pull a lot of balls this spring. That’s a good sign. Early on, some of the reports from his minor-league days were he got pull-happy. But those days are gone.”

Coors Field helps hitters in two ways. Due the altitude, the ball carries better. To counter that, the outfield is huge, giving fielders more ground to cover. That means more balls can drop in for hits as well. Someone who makes contact can do very well there. Here’s what the Rockies look like with a league average Story in the lineup. The Rockies hope that represents a floor for their offense.

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Pledge Drive Update

Happy Easter to those celebrating today!

The Baseball Musings Pledge Drive continues, with thirteen people donating $750. Can you help push the total over $1000?

I added a new payment method, the Square Cash app. My CashTag is $DavidPinto if you have the app, or you can use a browser at cash.me/$DavidPinto.

The team offense series using the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) is underway. If you find that tool useful, or use the Day by Day Database frequently, I hope you’ll think about a donation.

Thanks for your support!

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Thursday, March 31, 2016

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Wednesday, March 30, 2016

Tuesday, March 29, 2016

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Monday, March 28, 2016

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Is Taking a Steam Bath Daily Healthy?

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Sunday, March 27, 2016