Sunday, March 27, 2016

Team Offense, Philadelphia Phillies

The 2016 series on team offense continues with the Philadelphia Phillies. The Phillies finished twenty seventh in the majors and thirteenth in the National League in 2015 with 3.86 runs scored per game.

Once again I am using a combination of RotoChamp and USA Today as a source of default lineups. The USA Today lineup wins here due to the top of the order being closer to what the Phillies are using in Spring Training. That Pete Mackanin lineup is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. For the pitchers slot, I use the actual Phillies pitchers as batters numbers from 2015. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):

Best lineup: 4.02
Probable lineup: 3.82
Worst lineup: 3.49
Regressed lineup: 3.72

Odubel Herrera, Cesar Hernandez, and Maikel Franco is a decent 1-2-3 for the Phillies, although the LAT lines them up slightly differently. The real problem in this order comes fourth, with the increasing poor Ryan Howard in the most important power slot in the lineup. I suspect, as Howard is the last remnant of the Phillies glory days, he’s going to get the star slot.

At this point, it won’t make much difference. This is a much younger team than we’ve seen in recent years. That means a lot of upside, but also a lot of disappointment. I assume this will be Howard’s last season with the Phillies, as they are likely to buy out his 2017 option at the end of the season.

The good news for Phillies fans is this is no longer an old team trying to regain lost glory. A new generation is rising that will be hungry for their own championships. Just don’t expect a miracle this season.

You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.

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Previous posts in this series:



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