The 2016 series on team offense continues with the Minnesota Twins. The Twins finished tied for twelfth in the majors and eighth in the American League in 2015 with 4.30 runs scored per game.
Once again I am using a combination of RotoChamp and USA Today as a source of default lineups. There are minor differences between the two projected lineups, and I’m going with USA Today since it has Brian Dozier batting first, and that’s where he batted lately. That Paul Molitor lineup is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. For Korean veteran and MLB rookie Byung Ho Park, I knocked 50 points off his career OBP and 60 points off his career slugging percentage. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):
Best lineup: 4.84
Probable lineup: 4.74
Worst lineup: 4.50
Regressed lineup: 4.37
The Twins offense is tough to predict due to the number of young players on the team and a Korean import. Byron Buxton, Eddie Rosario, and Miguel Sano are all in the pre-prime years, none with 500 MLB plate appearances yet. Buxton’s projection, based on his limited play in 2015 might be way off, since he posted excellent OBPs in the minors. I do like that the Twins are batting him ninth, like the Yankees did with Derek Jeter early in Jeter’s career. It has the feel of the lead-off slot without the pressure, especially in the American League. Sano already showed he can produce at a similar rate to his minor league numbers, and Rosario retrain his power, but not his ability to get on base. There is a lot of upside in those three players.
My one criticism of the lineup is Joe Mauer batting third. Mauer’s power appears to be gone, making his ability to get on base his strength. He should be leading off, or at least batting second. Since he no longer catches, the extra rest is no longer needed.
The big takeaway for Twins fans is there’s little difference between the best and worst lineups given the projections, and all the lineups look good. If Buxton and Rosario continue to improve, don’t be surprised to see something like Buxton, Mauer, Rosario, Sano, and Park batting 1-5 at some point. That should make the opposition nervous.
You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.
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Previous posts in this series:
- Introduction
- Toronto Blue Jays
- New York Yankees
- Texas Rangers
- Boston Red Sox
- Colorado Rockies
- Houston Astros
- Kansas City Royals
- Arizona Diamondbacks
- Pittsburgh Pirates
- Baltimore Orioles
- Washington Nationals
- San Francisco Giants
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