The 2016 series on team offense continues with the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Dodgers finished nineteenth in the majors and eighth in the National League in 2015 with 4.12 runs scored per game.
Once again I am using a combination of RotoChamp and USA Today as a source of default lineups. I’m going with the RotoChamp lineup. They are almost identical, but RotoChamp made changes based on the injury to Andre Ethier. That Dave Roberts lineup is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. For the pitchers, I used the actual Dodgers stats from 2015. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):
Best lineup: 4.78
Probable lineup: 4.57
Worst lineup: 4.25
Regressed lineup: 4.25
Despite agreeing with the LAT at the two, four and six slots, the Dodgers appear to be leaving a large number of runs on the table. The default lineup would score 34 fewer runs than the best lineup over a season. Thirty four runs works out to about three wins. I think most fans would like the Dodger two through four arrangement a great deal. The LAT, however, values OBP in the first and ninth slots. Putting two of the lower OBP players, Howie Kendrick and the pitchers in those slots really pulls the scoring down. My guess is the third best lineup, with Corey Seager, Justin Turner, and Joc Pederson 1-2-3, with the same 4-5-6 that the Dodgers prefer, would work with critics of these fancy lineups, even if the pitchers bats ninth.
I suspect one reason Kendrick is at the top is a veteran presence. The Dodgers may not want three very young players (Yasiel Puig, Seager, and Pederson) at the top of the order, as there’s likely a lot more variation in the projections for those players. Dave Roberts can always adjust during the season if Kendrick doesn’t get on base as much as needed. This lineup has the potential to be one of the top ones in the NL, or so-so. Lineup construction can make a real difference here.
You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.
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Previous posts in this series:
- Introduction
- Toronto Blue Jays
- New York Yankees
- Texas Rangers
- Boston Red Sox
- Colorado Rockies
- Houston Astros
- Kansas City Royals
- Arizona Diamondbacks
- Pittsburgh Pirates
- Baltimore Orioles
- Washington Nationals
- San Francisco Giants
- Minnesota Twins
- Oakland Athletics
- Detroit Tigers
- Chicago Cubs
- New York Mets
- Cleveland Indians
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