The 2016 series on team offense continues with the Seattle Mariners. The Mariners finished twenty first in the majors and thirteenth in the American League in 2015 with 4.05 runs scored per game.
Once again I am using a combination of RotoChamp and USA Today as a source of default lineups. I’m going with the RotoChamp lineup. That one seems to have Robinson Cano and Nelson Cruz in the right order. That Scott Servais lineup is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):
Best lineup: 5.01
Probable lineup: 4.94
Worst lineup: 4.72
Regressed lineup: 4.51
A new general manager sweeps clean, and Jerry Dipoto made changes to improve the OBP of the team. Eight of the nine position players project to OBPs above .330. The AL average in 2015 was .318. He brought in Adam Lind, a first baseman who hits like a first baseman, something the Mariners lacked for a while. The Mariners are only the third team studied with the LAT this year with a best lineup projected to score five runs a game or better.
At the risk of sounding like Dusty Baker, however, I would never implement the best lineup as calculated by the LAT. Lind and Chris Iannetta are slow. If Nelson Cruz singles with two out, I want the runner to be able to score from second. As a catcher, Iannetta should bat further down to give him as much rest during a game as possible. With the amount of offensive talent on this team, that’s possible.
I actually like the lineups near the bottom of the top 30 with Nori Aoki, Cano, and Ketel Marte in the top three slots. Those are very close to the default lineup and do very well. In those, Iannetta serves as a second lead-off hitter from the ninth slot, which is perfect for the catcher.
Mariners fans should be excited for the offense this year.
You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.
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Previous posts in this series:
- Introduction
- Toronto Blue Jays
- New York Yankees
- Texas Rangers
- Boston Red Sox
- Colorado Rockies
- Houston Astros
- Kansas City Royals
- Arizona Diamondbacks
- Pittsburgh Pirates
- Baltimore Orioles
- Washington Nationals
- San Francisco Giants
- Minnesota Twins
- Oakland Athletics
- Detroit Tigers
- Chicago Cubs
- New York Mets
- Cleveland Indians
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
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