The division previews continue with the NL East. I try to get a handle on the wins for the core of the team. That includes the starting position players, the starting rotation, and the closer. I use a combination of the STATS, Inc. depth charts and the CBSSports depth charts, along with news stories to determine those groups. For wins, I use FanGraphs WAR from 2015, making conservative guesses for players not in the majors in 2015. As a rule of thumb, add 50 to the core WAR to get to a season win level. You can see the spreadsheet with the data here.
New York Mets
- Position Player WAR: 24.8
- Pitcher Total: 17.4
- Core Total: 42.2
The Mets go into 2016 with the strongest position core WAR and the strongest pitching core WAR. That should make them the odds-on favorite to win the NL East. The Mets position players are a little long in the tooth, with 20 of their 25 core WAR coming from players who will play 2016 as 30 years old or more. Curtis Granderson, at age 35, is the most likely to suffer a big decline coming off a five WAR season. I might knock the Mets down two or three WAR for age on that side of the ball.
On the pitching side, however, Bartolo Colon is the only old player, and his ancient form balances out the youth of the rest of the rotation. The other four starters all have upside either due to age, or in the case of Matt Harvey, a year to get stronger after Tommy John surgery. That group could easily make up for a decline in offense and defense. The Mets should go into the season as the favorites.
Washington Nationals
- Position Player WAR: 17.8
- Pitcher Total: 15.1
- Core Total: 32.9
Washington trails the Mets by a little over nine core WAR, but that may all be a result of injuries to key players. Anthony Rendon, Stephen Strasburg, Ryan Zimmerman, and Jayson Werth all missed significant time and/or saw performance declines due to injury. If that group stays healthy they could easily produce eight more WAR for the Nationals. Combine that with Tanner Roark returning to the rotation where he had success in 2014, and the Nationals have plenty of upside.
With Michael Taylor getting some experience in the majors, he serves as an insurance policy against either Werth or Zimmerman getting hurt. Taylor could take over for Werth in the outfield in he gets hurt, or if Werth moves to first for an injured Zimmerman.
The downside comes from the team being fairly dependent on great seasons from Bryce Harper and Max Scherzer. Both might fall off a little since they posted excellent seasons in 2015. Of course, we probably haven’t seen the best of Harper yet.
Washington fans should be cautiously optimistic. Strong seasons from Strasburg, Rendon, and Taylor should put them in the playoff picture at least.
Miami Marlins
- Position Player WAR: 20.0
- Pitcher Total: 7.4
- Core Total: 27.4
Full seasons from Jose Fernandez and Giancarlo Stanton likely brings the Marlins even with the Nationals core. That alone gives the Marlins a ton of upside. In addition, the other position players, with the exception of Martin Prado, and early or pre-prime. While none of them may turn into superstars, as a group there are six players that combined might add three or four WAR total through maturity.
With very little downside, the path to the playoffs for the Marlins is simply to keep their two stars healthy. That and a little luck and they will at least compete for a wild card.
Atlanta Braves
- Position Player WAR: 13.3
- Pitcher Total: 2.3
- Core Total: 15.6
There not much to say about the Braves as they begin a rebuild with their sights on getting better when they move into a new stadium. The position players aren’t all that bad, but they aren’t good. Freddie Freeman and Ender Inciarte give them some upside as well.
The pitching is terrible, however. Matt Wisler might develop into a good pitcher based on his minor league numbers, but there’s not much else there. They are much more likely to finish last than first.
Philadelphia Phillies
- Position Player WAR: 9.3
- Pitcher Total: 4.6
- Core Total: 13.9
The Phillies are young again, and that’s a reason to watch this team. Five of the position players are in their early prime years or younger. It’s a fresh start for the franchise.
It will likely take a year or two for this squad to develop into a cohesive unit. I will say that if the Phillies do find themselves in contention this year, they should find a replacement for Ryan Howard. Poor hitting at first base should be easy to correct. With the young players getting better, I suspect the Phillies will pass the Braves this season.
Probabilities of winning the division:
- New York Mets: 45%
- Washington Nationals: 27%
- Miami Marlins: 23%
- Philadelphia Phillies 4%
- Atlanta Braves 1%
This could be a very nice three-way race this season, with all three teams in the wild card hunt.
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/25zlkhu
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