Friday, March 25, 2016

Team Offense, San Diego Padres

The 2016 series on team offense continues with the San Diego Padres. The Padres finished twenty third in the majors and tenth in the National League in 2015 with 4.01 runs scored per game.

Once again I am using a combination of RotoChamp and USA Today as a source of default lineups. I’m going with the RotoChamp lineup. Their top of the order seems to reflect the recent lineups used in spring training. That Andy Green lineup is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. For the pitchers slot, I used the actual stats for the Padres pitchers from 2015. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):

Best lineup: 4.02
Probable lineup: 3.85
Worst lineup: 3.50
Regressed lineup: 3.75

I find it interesting that while I went with the RotoChamp lineup, the USA Today lineup very closely matches the top performing lineup according to the LAT. USA Today has Travis Jankowski playing the outfield instead of Melvin Upton, Jr., but the two agree on the one through six spots. The RotoChamp lineup is close, if you start the order in the ninth slot. Someone on the Padres is doing his homework.

The Padres will need to put a near optimum lineup on the field, as they lack depth. The bottom third of the order look like easy outs. Fans are waiting for Wil Myers to bloom and Matt Kemp to return to his glory years. Couple that with a tough ballpark for hitters, and don’t look for much improvement (if any) in the Padres ability to score this year.

You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.

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Previous posts in this series:



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