The 2016 series on team offense continues with the Cincinnati Reds. The Reds finished twenty sixth in the majors and twelfth in the National League in 2015 with 3.95 runs scored per game.
Once again I am using a combination of RotoChamp and USA Today as a source of default lineups. The RotoChamp lineup wins out as Scott Schebler seems to be playing more than Adam Duvall. That Bryan Price lineup is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. For the pitchers slot, I use the actual Reds pitchers as batters numbers from 2015. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):
Best lineup: 4.32
Probable lineup: 3.97
Worst lineup: 3.69
Regressed lineup: 3.83
Based on the Marcel Projections, this is a horrible lineup. On the spreadsheet associated with this series, I calculate the percentage of best, a measure of where the probable lineup stands between the worst and best lineups, where the worst would be 0% and the best would be 100%. It is rare to see a probable lineup below 60% of the best. This Reds lineup lies at 44.4%.
The Reds place their two worst position player OBPs at the top of the order, the place where a high OBP is most helpful. Three of the better projects bat six through eight. The lineup is upside down.
Outside of Joey Votto, there is not a lot of talent on this team, so it may not matter how many runs score this year. If the projections hold up, the Reds will be leaving between 50 and 60 runs on the table this season, and that’s five or six wins. Last season, that would have been enough to get them out of the cellar in the NL Central.
I understand that some seasons a club just can’t field a competitive team. That is no excuse for not getting the most out of the team on the field. The Reds are failing on both counts.
You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.
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Previous posts in this series:
- Introduction
- Toronto Blue Jays
- New York Yankees
- Texas Rangers
- Boston Red Sox
- Colorado Rockies
- Houston Astros
- Kansas City Royals
- Arizona Diamondbacks
- Pittsburgh Pirates
- Baltimore Orioles
- Washington Nationals
- San Francisco Giants
- Minnesota Twins
- Oakland Athletics
- Detroit Tigers
- Chicago Cubs
- New York Mets
- Cleveland Indians
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
- Seattle Mariners
- Milwaukee Brewers
- San Diego Padres
- St. Louis Cardinals
- Tampa Bay Rays
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