The division previews continue with the AL East. I try to get a handle on the wins for the core of the team. That includes the starting position players, the starting rotation, and the closer. I use a combination of the STATS, Inc. depth charts and the CBSSports depth charts, along with news stories to determine those groups. For wins, I use FanGraphs WAR from 2015, making conservative guesses for players not in the majors in 2015. As a rule of thumb, add 50 to the core WAR to get to a season win level. You can see the spreadsheet with the data here.
Toronto Blue Jays
- Position Player WAR: 29.8
- Pitcher Total: 9.2
- Core Total: 39.0
The Blue Jays own the highest position player core WAR in the division and the overall number as well. There is some downside here as a number of prominent players are on the downside of 30. Troy Tulowitzki, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, and R.A Dickey combined for 13.5 WAR in 2015. A ten percent decrease among the group would bring the core WAR down to 37.7. There also might be some down side with Kevin Pillar and Russell Martin, since there is a large defensive component to their WAR, and that component tends to be more volatile than offense.
The main upside is Marcus Stroman. He missed most of last season, but managed to accumulate 0.5 WAR in just four games. He could easily turn out to be a four or five WAR player.
All in all, the Jays look like a very strong team once again in 2016. They will be the team to beat in the AL East.
New York Yankees
- Position Player WAR: 19.3
- Pitcher Total: 13.3
- Core Total: 32.6
Pitching is either a strong point or a weak point for the Yankees, depending on how you see upsides and downsides. Masahiro Tanaka and Michael Pineda should improve their WAR if they remain healthy. That’s a big if, however. CC Sabathia, now sober and with a knee brace that helped at the end of 2015, might improve. All three could just as easily end up on the sidelines, however.
The big upside on offense would be Starlin Castro. He seemed to mature as a player at the end of 2015, and maybe the change of scenery will do him good. Most of the other position players are past prime, and they are more likely to decline as a group than improve. I would bet this core comes in below the WAR stated above. The Yankees will need great years from Castro, Tanaka, and Pineda to win.
Baltimore Orioles
- Position Player WAR: 20.1
- Pitcher Total: 9.3
- Core Total: 29.4
One of the stories of the winter was the turmoil in the Orioles player acquisition process. They found an injury with Yovani Gallardo. They failed to sign Dexter Fowler. Yesterday they released Miguel Gonzalez and decided they don’t have room for Hyun Soo Kim.
The come into 2016 with the lowest core WAR in the division, but the four teams behind Toronto are so close, they might as well be even. The big problem is that a lot of that WAR is concentrated in two players, Chris Davis and Manny Machado. The will need Matt Wieters and J.J. Hardy to bounce back, and have the pitching remain solid. A lot could go right for this team, but a lot could go wrong as well.
Tampa Bay Rays
- Position Player WAR: 16.3
- Pitcher Total: 13.6
- Core Total: 29.9
The Rays own the worst position player Core WAR in the division. The silver lining for Tampa Bay is that the holes in this area are at first base and designated hitter. Offensive talent tends to be easier to come by at those positions. If they can just get two WAR at each of those positions, they’ll be in contention for a wild card.
There is upside in the rotation with Drew Smyly and Matt Moore each pitching partial seasons in 2015. Healthy, they give the Rays a solid front of the rotation behind Chris Archer. As usual, the Rays are a good team with flaws, but at least the offensive problems should be relatively easy to fix.
Boston Red Sox
- Position Player WAR: 16.9
- Pitcher Total: 13.7
- Core Total: 30.6
I’ve seen the Red Sox projected to win the AL East. I don’t see that they are significantly better than the other three teams behind Toronto. Instead of going into the season with five #3 starters, they now have an ace in David Price. That gives them the highest pitching core WAR in the division, but it’s just a hair better than the Rays and the Yankees.
The Red Sox winning depends on the improvement of two players compared to 2015, Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez. They each posted about -2.0 WAR in 2015. The Red Sox need them both to flip the sign, which would add eight WAR to the total. Even then, that just brings them even with Toronto.
There is other upside, with the Xander Bogaerts and Mookie Betts at an age where they can improve on their already excellent play. The Red Sox really need the two expensive 2015 signings to play to their contracts for a division win, however.
Probability of winning the division
- Toronto Blue Jays 40%
- New York Yankees 17%
- Tampa Bay Rays 16%
- Boston Red Sox 15%
- Baltimore Orioles 12%
The Blue Jays look like the most solid team in an even division. I’m actually tempted to put them at 32% and added 2% to the other four teams. This division may be determined more by the adjustments made in season than any moves made this winter.
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/1SAP5aH
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