Sunday, March 20, 2016

Team Offense, Detroit Tigers

The 2016 series on team offense continues with the Detroit Tigers. The Tigers finished fifteenth in the majors and tenth in the American League in 2015 with 4.28 runs scored per game.

Once again I am using a combination of RotoChamp and USA Today as a source of default lineups. The lineups flip J.D. Martinez and Victor Martinez in the four and five slots. I’m going with the RotoChamp lineup, since they seem to be aware of Victor Martinez’s injury. That Brad Ausmus lineup is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):

Best lineup: 5.14
Probable lineup: 5.05
Worst lineup: 4.80
Regressed lineup: 4.59

Both the optimum and default lineups are the second highest scoring rated so far, only behind the Blue Jays. As with the Oakland Athletics, my first impression was to flip Anthony Gose and Jose Iglesias in the eight and nine slot, batting Iglesias ninth as the secondary lead-off man. The LAT agreed. Otherwise, the Tigers default lineup is close to optimum. The LAT agrees on the two, four, and five slots, with Miguel Cabrera and Ian Kinsler flipped between 1 and 3. Where there is one player head and shoulder above every one else in both OBP and slugging, the LAT calculates that players should lead off.

Still, the Tigers get the right players close together one through five and six through nine. If Detroit can keep them healthy, they’ll score a lot of runs and take some pressure off the pitching staff.

You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.

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Previous posts in this series:



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