The 2016 series on team offense continues with the Kansas City Royals. The Royals finished seventh in the majors and sixth in the American League in 2015 with 4.47 runs scored per game.
Once again I am using a combination of RotoChamp and USA Today as a source of default lineups. There is quite a difference between the two. I’m going with USA Today since they have Mike Moustakas batting second, and reports indicate the Royals want him there. That Ned Yost lineup is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):
Best lineup: 4.50
Probable lineup: 4.37
Worst lineup: 4.21
Regressed lineup: 4.11
Given the projections, the Royals lineup appears to be poorly constructed. The table setters, Alcides Escobar and Moustakas, project to low OBPs. The LAT puts them in the lower third of the order. Alex Gordon, who nows bats sixth after suffering some injuries, projects as the best lead-off man, with the other two outstanding OBP hitters, Eric Hosmer and Lorenzo Cain following.
The Moustakas move is understandable. He posted a very OBP in 2015, way above his career averages. Playing at seasonal age 26 in 2015, he was young enough that a big leap was still possible. There’s no excuse for Escobar, however, as he never showed the ability to get on base, despite lots of hits in the post-season.
The Royals surprised us the last two years with their offense, so I’m willing to admit they may know something I don’t. The lineup in USA Today, however, does not make me feel good about their offense.
You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.
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Previous posts in this series:
- Introduction
- Toronto Blue Jays
- New York Yankees
- Texas Rangers
- Boston Red Sox
- Colorado Rockies
- Houston Astros
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