The division previews begin with the NL Central. I try to get a handle on the wins for the core of the team. That includes the starting position players, the starting rotation, and the closer. I use a combination of the STATS, Inc. depth charts and the CBSSports depth charts, along with news stories to determine those groups. For wins, I use FanGraphs WAR from 2015, making conservative guesses for players not in the majors in 2015. As a rule of thumb, add 50 to the core WAR to get to a season win level. You can see the spreadsheet with the data here.
St. Louis Cardinals
- Position Player WAR: 15.3
- Pitcher Total: 13.3
- Core Total: 28.6
It looks like the Cardinals are taking a step back this year. Usually the Cardinals core is strong enough to suggest playoff contention, or even a division win. The good news is that their core total may be a floor. The team has two possibilities for upside. The more likely one comes from the young hitters. Randal Grichuk and Stephen Piscotty posted good power number in under 400 plate appearances. They are just reaching their prime years, so more playing time and maturity should lead to a higher WAR.
The other chance for upside comes from the injured veterans. Adam Wainwright, Yadier Molina, and Matt Holiday were all hampered by or missed time due to injuries. The problem with looking for upside here is that these players are older now, so recovery is tougher, and they are in decline anyway. So to record the upside here, the three have to stay healthy and play well. It’s unlikely they’ll do worse than in 2015.
The Cardinals front office tends to succeed in filling gaps, and they’ll have their work cut out for them in 2016. It’s a good team, but not a great team.
Pittsburgh Pirates
- Position Player WAR: 20.3
- Pitcher Total: 13.0
- Core Total: 33.3
The Pirates might end up a bit stronger among the position players with the return of Jung Ho Kang. He is still rehabilitating his knee after a horrendous collision last September. The numbers for the Pirates position players look good, not much upside or downside, and up in one spot might be balanced by down in another.
The addition of Franciso Cervelli worked out very well for Pittsburgh. He’ll play this season as a 30-year-old, so I’d look for the most downside there.
On the pitching side, the Pirates miracle workers try to revive the careers of Jonathon Niese and Ryan Vogelsong. If the coaches can turn each of them into two WAR pitchers, the Pirates will have an excellent chance of capturing a wild card in 2016.
Chicago Cubs
- Position Player WAR: 30.1
- Pitcher Total: 23.4
- Core Total: 53.5
The Cubs own the best position player core WAR in the division, and the pitching core WAR in the division. The 53.5 core WAR indicates the Cubs could win 100 games with minimum contributions from the rest of the team. As a point of comparison, the 1998 Yankees finished that season with a position player core WAR of 36.6 and a pitcher core WAR of 20.2, for a 56.8 core. They won 114 games. We are not just looking at a good Cubs team, this could be an historically great team period.
It gets better, as there are a number of young players in this lineup, and they are likely to improve. That might be balanced by the veteran pitching staff declining a bit, but this number looks more like a floor than a ceiling. The Cubs should run away with the division.
Milwaukee Brewers
- Position Player WAR: 5.1
- Pitcher Total: 7.1
- Core Total: 12.2
The core WAR for the Brewers is low, and one has to believe that this is a floor. A number of position players were part timers in 2015. Playing full time should move their WARs higher. On the other hand, there is a reason they were part time players, and a full season might accentuate their flaws. The Brewers do have the number one ranked farm system, so these players are place holders. Fans should watch for the youngsters coming up.
Cincinnati Reds
- Position Player WAR: 14.2
- Pitcher Total: 5.8
- Core Total: 20.0
The Reds will be fun to watch as long as Joey Votto gets to bat and Billy Hamilton gets to chase down fly balls. There’s not much around them, however. One would think Jay Bruce would have some upside. It’s unusual to see a player lose his ability to hit at age 27, but for the last two years Bruce has not hit for average nor reached base at a decent rate.
The upside for the pitchers ride on the arms of Brandon Finnegan and Jon Moscot. Finnegan has the strikeouts but not the control, Moscot the control but not the strikeouts. If they can each come in at two WAR, or at least hold the fort until Homer Bailey returns, they’ll help improve the team.
Probability of winning the division
- Cubs 70%
- Pirates 9%
- Cardinals 7%
- Reds 3%
- Brewers 1%
The Cubs are designed to win everything, and start a dynasty on top of that. The Pirates and Cardinals are smart organizations, so would not count them out. I will be very surprised if the Cubs lose this division, or even if it’s a close race.
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/21SoKY6
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