Sunday, March 27, 2016

Team Offense, Chicago White Sox

The 2016 series on team offense continues with the Chicago White Sox. The White Sox finished twenty eighth in the majors and last in the American League in 2015 with 3.84 runs scored per game.

Once again I am using a combination of RotoChamp and USA Today as a source of default lineups. The RotoChamp lineup wins here as it takes into account the retirement of Adam LaRoche. That Robin Ventura lineup is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):

Best lineup: 4.69
Probable lineup: 4.60
Worst lineup: 4.40
Regressed lineup: 4.27

The White Sox overhauled their lineup over the winter, and the projections show they show be much improved. On top of that, the default lineup captures a good deal of the run production of the best lineup. The White Sox and the LAT agree on the one, four, and five slots, with the three players at the bottom of the order matching in a different order.

The big difference is the position of Brett Lawrie, batting second in the default lineup. I suppose the White Sox believe Lawrie, at seasonal age 26, can recapture the OBP of his rookie season. At this point, the .314 projection might be generous. I suspect that if Lawrie’s OBP remains low, he’ll drop in the batting order.

All-in-all, Chicago fans should see a lot more run scoring this season.

You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.

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Previous posts in this series:



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