The 2016 series on team offense continues with the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Diamondbacks finished eighth in the majors and second in the National League in 2015 with 4.44 runs scored per game.
Once again I am using a combination of RotoChamp and USA Today as a source of default lineups. There is quite a difference between the two. I’m going with RotoChamp, since the consensus of articles I’ve seen puts David Peralta in the second batting slot. That Chip Hale lineup is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. For the pitchers, I used the actual Diamondbacks results for their pitchers from 2015. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):
Best lineup: 4.50
Probable lineup: 4.29
Worst lineup: 3.88
Regressed lineup: 4.06
I like the Diamondbacks lineup much better than the LAT. A.J. Pollack and Peralta should serve as pretty good table setters ahead of the powerful Paul Goldschmidt, and behind Goldschmidt are players arranged basically in falling OBP order, sometimes with a higher slugging percentage winning out. It’s a classic.
The LAT puts Goldschmidt at the top of the order. He’s just so much better than every one else on the team it’s worth it to get him the most plate appearances. An option like that only works if you bat the pitcher eighth, however. The DBacks get part of the way there batting Peralta second. If they flipped the pitchers and Nick Ahmed in the order, the expected runs of the probable lineup would rise to 4.41. Tony LaRussa was a pioneer of batting the pitcher eighth, so many Hale will try it.
You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.
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Previous posts in this series:
- Introduction
- Toronto Blue Jays
- New York Yankees
- Texas Rangers
- Boston Red Sox
- Colorado Rockies
- Houston Astros
- Kansas City Royals
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