The 2016 series on team offense continues with the New York Mets. The Mets finished seventeenth in the majors and seventh in the National League in 2015 with 4.22 runs scored per game.
Once again I am using a combination of RotoChamp and USA Today as a source of default lineups. I’m actually blending lineups this time. The RotoChamp lineup as David Wright second, and he batted there lately. But it also show Yoenis Cespedes fourth, and he’s batting third. I adjusted the top four to reality, then took the RC lineup the rest of the way. That Terry Collins lineup is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. For the pitchers, I used the actual batting stats the Mets pitchers posted in 2015. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):
Best lineup: 4.53
Probable lineup: 4.36
Worst lineup: 4.07
Regressed lineup: 4.10
The LAT really wants Michael Conforto batting near the top of the order. The Mets are wise to bat him lower, however, since his projection is based on a small sample size. On the other hand, he posted great minor league numbers. If he hits like he did in the minors, look for him to bat higher in the order by the end of the season.
I thought the LAT would like Cespedes in the third slot, since he has a low OBP and high slugging percentage. The LAT prefers him in the fourth slot, however, with his power trumping his poor OBP. Given that the Mets are not likely to bat the pitcher eighth, Cespedes third makes sense. Lucas Duda, with a good OBP, can serve as the second inning lead-off hitter after 1-2-3 first inning starts.
The Mets offense is good but not great. There is some age, which could lead to offensive declines and injury. The story of this team should be about the pitching, however, and the Mets should generate enough offense to support that staff.
You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.
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Previous posts in this series:
- Introduction
- Toronto Blue Jays
- New York Yankees
- Texas Rangers
- Boston Red Sox
- Colorado Rockies
- Houston Astros
- Kansas City Royals
- Arizona Diamondbacks
- Pittsburgh Pirates
- Baltimore Orioles
- Washington Nationals
- San Francisco Giants
- Minnesota Twins
- Oakland Athletics
- Detroit Tigers
- Chicago Cubs
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