The 2016 series on team offense begins with the Toronto Blue Jays. The Blue Jays finished first in the majors and in 2015 with 5.50 runs scored per game. That was nearly 0.8 runs higher than the second place team.
Once again I am using a combination of RotoChamp and USA Today as a source of default lineups. Both agree on the default lineup. That John Gibbons lineup is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):
Best lineup: 5.27
Probable lineup: 5.19
Worst lineup: 4.96
Regressed lineup: 4.69
This lineup hits so well that the order doesn’t matter much. The default two through five hitters all get on base well and hit for power. The first two innings are going to be tough for starting pitchers.
The interesting thing about the lineup is the insertion of Kevin Pillar in the lead-off slot. Pillar often appears as the lead-off hitter in the set of the worst lineups. Pillar’s minor league record stands in favor of him leading off. In his five minor league seasons, he posted a .344 OBP, .353 at AAA. Pillar is not young however, playing 2016 as a 27 year old. So he was always old for his level of play in the minors, which may have inflated his OBP. He did show improvement in his first full year in the majors, and at age 27, he’s likely to have his best year hitting. It’s a decent gamble, and if he can post a .330 OBP the Blue Jays will be happy.
One way of hedging the bet would be to follow the LATs recommendation and bat Russell Martin ninth. With Ryan Goins and Pillar back to back, Josh Donaldson won’t get many RBI opportunities. Martin ninth solves that problem.
All in all, it’s a great lineup and the team should be near the top of the run scorers again.
You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.
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Previous posts in this series:
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