The 2016 series on team offense continues with the Texas Rangers. The Rangers finished third in the majors and the American League in 2015 with 4.64 runs scored per game.
Once again I am using a combination of RotoChamp and USA Today as a source of default lineups. The two disagree on Elvis Andrus and Rougned Odor. The USA Today lineup places Odor seventh and Andrus eighth, which makes more sense given their projections. Odor is injured again, however, so the Rotochamp lineup may reflect his health. For now, I’m going with the USA Today lineup. That Jeff Bannister lineup is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):
Best lineup: 4.88
Probable lineup: 4.81
Worst lineup: 4.59
Regressed lineup: 4.42
The LAT devises a very different lineup than the team default. Most teams are wont to put power in the middle of the lineup. The LAT doesn’t mind power at the top if the players also get on base. That’s why it tends to stick a decent OBP in the ninth slot. The LAT also downgrades the third slot, normally the place for the best hitter on the team. The LAT tends to get the best hitter up earlier, and teams are starting to see this as players like Josh Donaldson and Joey Votto bat second. So the LAT like Adrian Beltre and Prince Fielder in the second slot, and Delino Deshields and Andrus in the third slot.
The LAT also like Odor batting fourth. All the projections I’ve seen for Odor show good power. Given his young age, (seasonal age 22 in 2016), he is still improving. His career still represents a small sample size however, so until he proves he can hit that way consistently, lower in the lineup is probably better.
Ian Desmond and Robinson Chirinos have the same OBP and Slugging Percentage projection, so as far as the LAT is concerned, they are interchangeable. Desmond projects to the higher BA, so he should probably bat higher in the order.
All in all, the Rangers should be in for a good offensive season.
You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.
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Previous posts in this series:
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