The 2016 series on team offense continues with the Colorado Rockies. The Rockies finished fifth in the majors and first in the National League in 2015 with 4.55 runs scored per game.
Once again I am using a combination of RotoChamp and USA Today as a source of default lineups. The two sources agree on the lineup. I like the RotoChamp lineup better, since they have the hot Trevor Story at shortstop. That Walt Weiss lineup is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. For the pitchers, I used the Rockies actual numbers from 2015. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):
Best lineup: 4.44
Probable lineup: 4.22
Worst lineup: 3.88
Regressed lineup: 4.01
The LAT and the Rockies agree on the grouping of players if not the exact order. The Rockies 1-2-3 hitters hit 9-1-2 on the LAT, with DJ LeMahieu moving from two to nine. The 4-5-6 hitters bat 3-4-5, with Gerardo Parra moving from five to three. The 7-8-9 hitters bat in the same order, but 6-7-8, with the pitcher taking up the eighth slot.
Story had a break-out season in 2015, hitting for power at the relatively low altitude park in New Britain, CT, and the relatively high altitude park in Albuquerque, NM. He will play 2013 as a 23-year-old, a great age to make the majors with a big impact. If he does hit for power well above the league average, the runs per game predictions above will be on the low side.
You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.
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Previous posts in this series:
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